Fear of MAGA “backlash” is no reason to let Donald Trump make an illegal run for president
Despite hand-wringing mainstream media coverage calling it “controversial,” the most remarkable aspect of the debate over whether Donald Trump should be banned from accessing the ballot is how one-sided it is. Once you start reading about legal arguments on each side, what becomes swiftly clear is there is no good argument for keeping Trump in the race. The 14th Amendment to the Constitution, as both Colorado’s Supreme Court and Maine’s secretary of state have correctly decided, is clear in its language: Anyone who has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against” the U.S., after taking an oath of office, is forbidden from running again.
There’s no use pretending Trump didn’t engage in insurrection in his two-month campaign to overthrow an election. Even Trump’s lawyers don’t really contest that he did it, which is why they resort to a nonsensical argument that the presidency isn’t an office of the United States. This is an obviously dumb argument from people who are out of ideas.
Once you start reading about legal arguments on each side, what becomes swiftly clear is there is no good argument for keeping Trump in the race.
Most arguments for allowing Trump on the ballot rely on treating the Constitution’s clear guidance as merely optional. They claim it’s vaguely “undemocratic” to deny Trump supporters their number one pick going into the election. This also falls apart under the slightest scrutiny. Even more Americans would like a chance to vote for Barack Obama again, but he can’t run because of term limits. Millions would love to vote for Taylor Swift, but she isn’t old enough. If those minor restrictions can be honored, surely the much more pressing need to keep a man who is running to end democracy off the ballot is valid.
As Perry Bacon of the Washington Post noted, “The real affront to democracy is Trump, not officials following laws intended to keep people like him from gaining power.” He also reaffirms this is not a “partisan” claim, as no one is trying to boot Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla. or former Gov. Nikki Haley, R-S.C. from the ballot.
So bereft of any legal argument for keeping Trump on the ballot, there is always the argument of last resort: Taking their butt-smelly orange master off the ballot will draw a “backlash” from MAGA.
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There are two camps making this argument: outright Trump supporters and bed-wetting centrists who don’t want to face up to the fact that we live in perilous times that require unprecedented action to save our democracy.
Of the first camp, there is little to say. They’re Trump supporters and therefore incurably dishonest. The latter, however, is gaining traction with their short-sighted stance that prioritizes their immediate fear of being yelled at over the long-term dangers to our democracy. For instance, Jonathan Chait of New York offered a typical knock-kneed argument, writing that disqualifying Trump “would be seen forever by tens of millions of Americans as a negation of democracy.”
What is this “would” you’re talking about, Jon? The voters in question are MAGA voters, who already claim that democracy was ended in 2020. Polling shows fewer than a third of Republican voters accept that President Joe Biden won in 2020. If the concern is that they’ll latch onto some conspiracy theory about how Democrats stole “their” democracy, and thus they’re justified in using illegal and violent means to regain control, guess what? They’re already there.
The Hill published an article recounting the largely anonymous “concerns” that other Democrats supposedly have: That this will somehow hurt Biden. Voters will allegedly “recoil at efforts to throw the leading contender for the GOP nomination off the ballot” and “end up more likely to vote for him.”
Well, if he’s disqualified, then they can’t vote for him. But the larger assertion that there’s some mass of would-be Biden voters who will switch to Trump is shaky at best. On the contrary, seeing Trump face an actual consequence for his attempt to overthrow democracy would likely convince any fence-sitters out there to take Trump’s crimes seriously. One of the reasons Trump is even able to muddy the waters about his own behavior is this lack of official punishment, which allows some folks to believe what he did can’t be that serious if no one is doing anything to hold him responsible.
Ultimately, it comes down to this: Who care if MAGA voters are mad? They’re always mad.
MAGA means you live in a perpetual state of unjustified grievance. If they aren’t whining about Trump being thrown off the ballot, they’re whining about tap-dancing Christmas routines or Taylor Swift taking pictures with her cat. Every morning, there’s a new excuse for why it’s time to end democracy and replace it with a Trump-led fascist state. The only difference here is that, unlike a Taylor Swift cat photo, taking Trump off the ballot is a meaningful step towards preserving democracy.
I suspect a lot of the fear of “backlash” comes from a more unspeakable place than mere mean tweets or unjustified fears about the outcome of the 2024 election. A lot of this, I suspect, is about violence. We all saw what happened on January 6, when Trump whipped up a mob in order to stay in power. We all know it’s only by sheer luck no one was outright murdered that day, though many lost lives. People fear something worse will happen if those MAGA people get organized to violence again.
As Zack Beauchamp wrote at Vox this week, “Trump’s most fanatical followers have created a situation where challenging him carries not only political risks but also personal ones,” and this threat of violence “is quietly reshaping American politics.” It’s almost certainly a factor in the pretzel logic being rolled out by officials and judges who have defied the plain reading of the law to keep Trump on the ballot. And it’s a fear that is vibrating off every “don’t poke the bear” argument against applying the law to Trump by denying him another shot at the White House.
We were reminded of the threat Wednesday, when multiple state capitols were evacuated due to bomb threats. But, by keeping Trump on the ballot, all that we’re doing is temporarily delaying MAGA violence. As Brynn Tannehill wrote Wednesday at the New Republic, polling data shows “an unbreakable plurality of the GOP explicitly wants fascism.” These are folks “who believe they should be forever atop the social and political order because of their race and/or religion and are angry at society for changing.” You cannot placate such people. All you can do is beat them.
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The hand-wringers claim they want this, but by beating Trump at the polls instead of through rule of law. But the very same people who will throw a fit if Trump is removed from the ballot will go absolutely haywire if he loses another election. They will claim it was “stolen” and use it as a pretext for violence. They already hate democracy, and won’t like it any better if they lose again. January 6 should remove all doubt that losing at the polls is enough to quell MAGA violence.
And if Trump wins or successfully steals the next election? MAGA won’t be placated then, either. As Trump has indicated, the goal is “retribution.” Fascists are infamously sore winners, who react to seizing power by lashing out violently against everyone they hate. The longer we put off dealing with the issue of MAGA’s violence, the more their sadism will fester and expand. The only way to limit the damage is nip this in the bud sooner rather than later.
The good news is we do know what prevents MAGA violence, and it’s not rolling over and giving them what they want. It’s the opposite: punishing violence with swift certainty. Fear of consequences is the only thing that checks these folks, who otherwise let their outrageous sense of entitlement justify all sorts of transgressions against basic morality. We’ve seen this since January 6, where widespread arrests and convictions of the rioters has done a great deal to tamp down MAGA enthusiasm for another riot.
On the flip side is Trump, who hasn’t yet faced any meaningful consequences for January 6. As a result, he’s doubled down on his violence, calling for it so routinely that it doesn’t even make the news anymore. And when one of his followers acts, such as the man who tried to murder the husband of then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Trump gloats about it and publicly longs for more. His impunity is seeping back into his followers, and will get worse if they start sensing that they have won illegitmate victories by force, such as keeping him on the ballot with threats.
It boils down to this: You don’t stop MAGA violence by giving in, but the opposite. You stop it by fighting back and holding people accountable. Removing Trump from the ballot, as the law requires, is a first step. It sends a strong message to MAGA: This is what happens when you use violence to get your way. By not taking his name off the ballot, states are signaling that they will accede to violent threats. We should not be surprised if rewarding MAGA violence means we see more of it.