Tony Awards Predictions 2026: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

The magic of a Broadway season is in the surprise. Certain productions that seem like sure bets, with should-be show-stopping performances and dreamy production teams, come up short. Smaller, unknown titles take off, enchanting theater audiences with their simple sets and heartfelt storylines. If you had asked me to craft this list as productions were being announced last year, it would be unrecognizable to me now. Shows that seemed like juggernauts were completely shut out of nominations, and others that entered the season with a squeak built up momentum, creating an unpredictable Tony Awards season.

This year sees a noted downtick in new productions. With six musicals, eight plays, five musical revivals, and 11 play revivals, only 30 productions dared to take the stage. In comparison, 42 shows opened in the 2024–25 season. Leading the charge in Tony nominations for musicals are The Lost Boys and Schmigadoon!, both of which have a stunning 12 nods. Death of a Salesman leads for plays with nine nominations. Other notables include the incredible twist on a classic, Cats: The Jellicle Ball and Ragtime, both of which are duking it out for Best Revival of a Musical, the melty Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), and the thoughtful, Pulitzer Prize-winning play, Liberation.

Below, find my selects for this year’s Broadway season, both who will win on Sunday evening, based upon the Broadway buzz and odds, and who should win—my personal favorite. It goes without saying, but if those two picks differ, both are rightfully deserving to win.

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Best Musical

Nominees:

• The Lost Boys
• Schmigadoon!
• Titaníque
• Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Will Win: Schmigadoon!

If you’re looking for a pretty dang good adaptation of the Apple TV show many have come to love and adore, then Schmigadoon! is right on the money. Packed with jokes, fun music, and stellar performances, it has all of the ingredients of a Best Musical winner. Expect Schmigadoon! to win-adoon throughout the evening.

Should Win: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

The most heartwarming story on Broadway right now is, bar none, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York). When Dougal Todd (Sam Tutty) comes to New York for his estranged father’s wedding, he meets sister of the bride Robin Rainey (Christiani Pitts). Together, they go on a journey to grab the wedding cake. As a hopeless romantic and fan of this specific type of love story, this show, for me, had it all. Also, it has a smaller producing team and is an original story, which is rare these days on Broadway. Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) is the David stacked up against a plethora of Goliaths. Hopefully, David takes home the prize once again.

Possible Upset: The Lost Boys has acrobatics, a great score, and some of the best performances of the season. If voters are looking to award a big, flashy musical that harkens back to the older days of big-budget Broadway, this movie adaptation could win.

Best Play

Nominees:

• The Balusters
• Giant
• Liberation
• Little Bear Ridge Road

Will and Should Win: Liberation

Bess Wohl’s Liberation is poised to take home Best Play, especially after nabbing the 2026 Pulitzer Prize for Drama. Set in both 1970 and present day, the play centers on a daughter (Susannah Flood) looking back at her mother Lizzie’s (also Flood) work in the feminist movement. It’s poignant, well done, and, while at times gets a little too preachy, seems to meet our current moment in history.

Possible Upset: The John Lithgow-led Giant comes to New York after an Olivier Award-winning run on the West End, focusing on children’s author Roald Dahl’s noted antisemitism.

Best Revival of a Musical

Nominees:

• Cats: The Jellicle Ball
• Ragtime
• Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show

Will Win: Ragtime

When Ragtime first graced the New York City Center Encores! season, it quickly became the talk of the town. Only open for two weekends, it straddled the 2024 presidential election, providing commentary on the state of America, from the show’s time (the early 1900s) to today. Now running at Lincoln Center, it still unfortunately feels more and more relevant with each passing day. It has strong performances and a few breathtaking moments, which I believe will seal its win.

Should Win: Cats: The Jellicle Ball

In my opinion, a revival is best when it completely reinvents a show. Enter Cats: The Jellicle Ball, which takes the Andrew Lloyd Webber classic and puts it in the ballroom scene. It’s a guiding light for future revivals—completely unexpected, innovative, and truly just a good time. If this show takes home the prize, it will be one of the best Tony moments in recent “Memory.”

Possible Upset: None

Best Revival of a Play

Nominees:

• Becky Shaw
• Death of a Salesman
• Every Brilliant Thing
• Fallen Angels
• Oedipus

Will and Should Win: Death of a Salesman

Death of a Salesman is one difficult ticket to get, and for good reason. Led by Nathan Lane with a remarkable performance by Laurie Metcalf, the return of the Arthur Miller classic has been all the rage. Expect this revival to win big this season.

Possible Upset: While this feels like Death of a Salesman’s award to lose, every single one of its competitors is actually fantastic. This category has the strongest productions of the season, making a surprising upset a possibility.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

Nominees:

• Nicholas Christopher (Chess, Anatoly Sergievsky)
• Luke Evans (Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show, Frank-N-Furter)
• Joshua Henry (Ragtime, Coalhouse Walker Jr.)
• Sam Tutty (Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Dougal Todd)
• Brandon Uranowitz (Ragtime, Tateh)

Will and Should Win: Joshua Henry

Joshua Henry is a true showstopper as Coalhouse Walker Jr. in Ragtime. His thunderous voice begs for a standing ovation, and he leads the show with a remarkable force that is rarely seen in the theater. If he doesn’t come home with the prize, it will be quite a shock.

Possible Upset: None

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

Nominees:

• Sara Chase (Schmigadoon!, Melissa Gimble)
• Stephanie Hsu (Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show, Janet Weiss)
• Caissie Levy (Ragtime, Mother)
• Marla Mindelle (Titaníque, Céline Dion)
• Christiani Pitts (Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Robin Rainey)

Will and Should Win: Caissie Levy

Caissie Levy’s performance in Ragtime is just as soft as it is commanding. It’s hard not to believe her every single word. As Mother, her voice soars, and the audience quickly empathizes with her character, showing that Levy is giving an onstage masterclass. “I feel very grateful, and it’s also very out-of-body,” she told ELLE about receiving her Tony nomination. “It means more than I even thought it would. It’s a beautiful convergence of a lot of really wonderful things.”

Possible Upset: Marla Mindelle is hilarious as Céline Dion in Titaníque.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

Nominees:

• Will Harrison (Punch, Jacob Dunne)
• Nathan Lane (Death of a Salesman, Willy Loman)
• John Lithgow (Giant, Roald Dahl)
• Daniel Radcliffe (Every Brilliant Thing, Performer)
• Mark Strong (Oedipus, Oedipus)

Will Win: Nathan Lane

Nathan Lane could take home his fourth Tony Award for his performance as Willy Loman in Death of a Salesman, and with the acclaim the show has earned, it would be surprising for its leading actor to come away without some gold.

Should Win: John Lithgow

In Giant, John Lithgow gives a searing and revealing performance as Roald Dahl, who, while writing The Witches, faces a publicity crisis for writing an antisemitic book review. Lithgow came home with an Olivier Award in the West End, and he deserves similar accolades on Broadway.

Possible Upset: Daniel Radcliffe has a blast in Every Brilliant Thing and the audience does too, of course, with a few tears along the way.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

Nominees:

• Rose Byrne (Fallen Angels, Jane Banbury)
• Carrie Coon (Bug, Agnes White)
• Susannah Flood (Liberation, Lizzie)
• Lesley Manville (Oedipus, Jocasta)
• Kelli O’Hara (Fallen Angels, Julia Sterroll)

Will and Should Win: Lesley Manville

As the clock ticks during the recent revival of Oedipus, Lesley Manville’s Jocasta begs you to stop time, specifically as you watch her life fall apart right before her eyes. You root for her, which makes the ending of Oedipus that much more difficult. Manville does an excellent job in the complicated role, and she should come home Sunday night with a Tony Award.

Possible Upset: None

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

Nominees:

• Ali Louis Bourzgui (The Lost Boys, David)
• André De Shields (Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Old Deuteronomy)
• Bryce Pinkham (Chess, The Arbiter)
• Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime, Mother’s Younger Brother)
• Layton Williams (Titaníque, Iceberg/The Seaman)

Will Win: André De Shields

When André De Shields descends in Cats: The Jellicle Ball, it’s hard to not immediately become transfixed on the legend. He fits perfectly in the ballroom, serving as the grand decision maker in the world of Cats. Why not honor De Shields with another accolade to add to his iconic legacy?

Should Win: Layton Williams

In Titaníque, Layton Williams steals the second act. Becoming a Tina Turner Iceberg (yes, you read that right), Williams sinks the Titanic while turning out an iconic version of “Proud Mary.” The flips, the twirls, and the incredible vocals, in my opinion, make Williams beyond deserving of this award.

Possible Upset: None

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

Nominees:

• Shoshana Bean (The Lost Boys, Lucy Emerson)
• Hannah Cruz (Chess, Svetlana)
• Rachel Dratch (Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show, The Narrator)
• Ana Gasteyer (Schmigadoon!, Mildred Layton)
• Nichelle Lewis (Ragtime, Sara)

Will and Should Win: Shoshana Bean

Shoshana Bean really has nothing left to prove. Considered one of Broadway’s star vocalists, the only thing she seems to be missing is a Tony Award. It’s time—just give it to her, dammit! In The Lost Boys, Bean’s Lucy Emerson has one of those numbers that reverberates throughout the Great White Way. It’s time to give this queen her crown.

Possible Upset: Nichelle Lewis has gotten a few standing ovations as Sara in Ragtime, and if things start to swing in that show’s direction, it could be very possible that she nabs this award.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

Nominees:

• Christopher Abbott (Death of a Salesman, Biff)
• Danny Burstein (Marjorie Prime, Jon)
• Brandon J. Dirden (Waiting for Godot, Pozzo)
• Alden Ehrenreich (Becky Shaw, Max)
• Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Bynum Walker)
• Richard Thomas (The Balusters, Elliott Emerson)

Will and Should Win: Alden Ehrenreich

Becky Shaw was my biggest surprise of the season. I was dragging my feet that evening, but when I stepped into the theater, I was completely blown away. Ehrenreich is a key reason. As Max, he provides comic relief throughout the show and clearly was the standout in an already compelling show.

Possible Upset: Christopher Abbott and Danny Burstein are also in this race.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

Nominees:

• Betsy Aidem (Liberation, Margie)
• Marylouise Burke (The Balusters, Penny Buell)
• Aya Cash (Giant, Jessie Stone)
• Laurie Metcalf (Death of a Salesman, Linda Loman)
• June Squibb (Marjorie Prime, Marjorie)

Will and Should Win: Laurie Metcalf

This is Laurie Metcalf’s award to lose, it seems, as everything is pointing in her direction. As Linda Loman in Death of a Salesman, she has the audience in the palm of her hand. Expect her to come home a winner.

Possible Upset: None

Best Direction of a Musical

Nominees:

• Michael Arden (The Lost Boys)
• Lear DeBessonet (Ragtime)
• Christopher Gattelli (Schmigadoon!)
• Tim Jackson (Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York))
• Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)

Will and Should Win: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch

It takes a certain mind to place a classic Andrew Lloyd Webber musical in the ballroom, and with Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Levingston and Rauch proved their brilliance. They should take this prize home.

Possible Upset: None

Best Direction of a Play

Nominees:

• Nicholas Hytner (Giant)
• Robert Icke (Oedipus)
• Kenny Leon (The Balusters)
• Joe Mantello (Death of a Salesman)
• Whitney White (Liberation)

Will and Should Win: Joe Mantello

Joe Mantello knocks it out of the park with Death of a Salesman. As the winds continue to move in the production’s direction, it would be surprising if he didn’t come home with this award.

Possible Upset: Whitney White does an excellent job with Liberation.

Best Choreography

Nominees:

• Christopher Gattelli (Schmigadoon!)
• Christopher Cree Grant and Lauren Yalango-Grant (The Lost Boys)
• Arturo Lyons and Omari Wiles (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)
• Ellenore Scott (Ragtime)
• Ani Taj (Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show)

Will and Should Win: Arturo Lyons and Omari Wiles

Bringing ballroom to Broadway is no easy feat, and with every kick, twirl, death drop, and spin, Cats: The Jellicle Ball proves that all dance has a place on the stage. Arturo Lyons and Omari Wiles are the frontrunners for this category.

Possible Upset: None

Best Book of a Musical

Nominees:

• Jim Barne and Kit Buchan (Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York))
• Tye Blue, Marla Mindelle, and Constantine Rousouli (Titaníque)
• Chris Hoch and David Hornsby (The Lost Boys)
• Cinco Paul (Schmigadoon!)

Will and Should Win: Cinco Paul

To put it simply, Schmigadoon! is just really funny, and it should earn Cinco Paul a Tony Award. To take a beloved TV show and translate it effortlessly to the Broadway stage requires true talent.

Possible Upset: None

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Nominees:

• Steve Bargonetti (Joe Turner’s Come and Gone)
• Jim Barne and Kit Buchan (Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York))
• Cinco Paul (Schmigadoon!)
• The Rescues (The Lost Boys)
• Caroline Shaw (Death of a Salesman)

Will and Should Win: Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) has a beautifully lush score. Sung exquisitely by its cast as well, it was hard not to get swept up in the beautiful melodies. If there’s any justice, the little Broadway musical that could will be a winner.

Possible Upset: The Lost Boys has a surprisingly rich score, one that could earn them this award.

The Tony Awards air Sunday, June 7, at 8 P.M. ET on CBS and will be streaming live on Paramount+.