A season of speculation: Impeachment, campaigns and Biden. Oh my!

It’s that time of the year.

In New Hampshire, the temperature is hovering around the freezing mark. The halls are decked with boughs of holly. The lights have been hung with care.

And, of course, it’s because the presidential candidates will be trudging through the underbrush engaged in their usual political folly.

Among them is Dean Phillips, who launched his long-shot bid for the Democratic nomination by saying that he agreed with President Joe Biden, had no plans to undermine him, “demean” or “diminish him”, but wanted to be a younger, mainstream voice that could carry the party into a generational change.

But the holiday season has brought about some changes, and it is not just a case of spiking somebody’s eggnog. CNN reported this week that Phillips, “On his largely self-funded swing last week through New Hampshire,” began raising doubts about Biden’s physical capacity and began calling the president “a threat to democracy,” in a series of speeches and attacks that “right-wing media and Donald Trump all feed on.”

Phillips says he has earnestly been shocked by what he says is Biden’s “deluded” threat to democracy by running at the risk of losing. Phillips also apparently said how much he now believes the president is not up to campaigning, while also criticizing “the Democratic establishment he was proud to be a part of,” for working against the people.  

Meanwhile former White House CorrespondentsAssociation President Tamara Keith at NPR wrote that Phillips said, “Voters want choices, especially in a year like this where the risk of losing to Donald Trump is a huge concern to many of us and I think the future of our country.” 

And, in an interview with NPR, Phillips went so far as to say that he thinks Biden should drop out if — by May or June — polls show him trailing Trump.

“I don’t know why you would run if you are the one who is going to lose, and ruin your whole legacy against the most dangerous man in the world,” Phillips said.

At the same time, other members of the Democratic Party have questioned if Biden still has a “fire in his belly” after two statements the president made last week concerning his re-election bid. He said the only reason he was running was because Trump was running, while also noting that there were probably “50 other” Democrats who could defeat Trump.

That set the stage for Dr. Jill Biden’s trip last week to Los Angeles where she discussed new women’s health initiatives at Cedar Sinai. Dr. Biden, her husband’s greatest defender and promoter wasn’t shy in touting the president’s commitment to women’s health issues.

“When I talked to Joe about this issue a few months ago, he listened. And then he took action. This is what Joe does – he learns about a problem, and then he gets to work tackling it,” she told a crowd of about 150 doctors, and members of the media.

“That’s why, last month, we launched the White House Initiative on Women’s Health Research,” she said to smiles and polite applause.

President Biden issued a presidential memorandum asking federal agencies to look at their programs, how they deal with mental health and put doctors and policy makers on notice that they had just 45 days to present their findings to the president.

“On December 28th, the White House will review their recommendations on how to make the policy changes necessary to advance women’s health research,” Dr. Biden explained.

Why the rush? According to the First Lady, and Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who spoke after Dr. Biden, the President is eager to make up for lost time.

Becerra joked that this was “No pressure.” And “The Biden Train is moving out.”

After the ceremony concluded, the First Lady shook hands and met with the assembled guests. As she approached, I asked her candidly if she supported her husband’s re-election bid. She looked at me briefly, then said nothing.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in D.C. politics the Republicans in the House voted this week to open an impeachment inquiry into Biden, mostly based on the business dealings of Hunter Biden. The Republican leadership in the House candidly admit they have nothing to go on, but an election year is coming and Donald Trump needs to raise money on the accusation that Biden and his son are terminally corrupt. 

Even FOX News has called out the Republicans for their supercilious stupidity. Senator Chuck Grassley was right there with FOX. “I have no evidence of it,” Grassley told CNN, just hours before House Republicans were set to vote to formalize the Biden impeachment inquiry. “I’m just going to follow the facts where they are, and the facts haven’t taken me to that point where I can say the president is guilty of anything.” Not a damn thing, but the ball continues to roll.

Some wags in Washington have speculated that the idea behind the worst Congress in our history pushing for impeachment is merely an attempt to drive Biden off the ballot, while most of us capable of cogent thought know it’s also another excuse to be used by Trump to grift his supporters out of more money.

In addition, the president isn’t even on the ballot in New Hampshire. That’s because the Democratic National Committee ordered a shake up of the order of  primaries in 2024. Biden backed the move to have the South Carolina primary first in order to better empower Black and other minority voters deemed “crucial to the party’s base.” New Hampshire balked at that and Biden responded by walking away from New Hampshire  ( although more than 100 Biden supporters want to engage in a write-in campaign.)

This, of course, has led to speculation about Biden “historically snubbing” tradition and further concerns that Biden doesn’t have the energy to conduct a campaign for re-election, due to age, health, perhaps arrogance or a combination of all three. “Lions, and Tigers and Bears, oh my!” One senior Biden official laughed when I asked about the upshot. “The President is committed to doing what’s best for the country.”

Phillips seems intent on embarrassing Biden into pulling out of the race, and opening it up for other, younger candidates. He is among those who contends Biden is not physically capable of a robust campaign and CNN reports that, “With a good poll for Biden these days being one in which he is over 40 percent, Phillips sees himself as like the boy in “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” who makes the rest angry by being the only one brave enough to point out problems anyone can see.”

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For the rest of us, caution should prevail. Reading tea leaves at this point in a race that is only just beginning in earnest is a bit like trying to swim through political quicksand.

Dr. Biden’s Los Angeles trip is interesting because the sense of urgency on that issue is unusual from a president in his first term – who usually worries more about getting re-elected than taking care of policy. It has sparked some speculation that Biden’s urgency is because he likely won’t end up running again.

“The fact that the First Lady didn’t answer your question speaks volumes,” I was told by a leading Democrat. Maybe. Maybe not. Perhaps the President and the First Lady will spend the holiday season discussing the future of the Biden candidacy and administration. Maybe not. Plenty of people think California Governor Gavin Newsom is waiting in the wings to jump in the race – which is why he recently went to China and debated Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on FOX television.

Some called Newsom’s trip to China in October “hypocrisy” while others said it “helped thaw” relations with the United States. Immediately prior to visiting China he also visited Israel, drawing similar criticisms.

Trump supporters, at least those who continue to labor for Trump for pay and under the delusion that Trump is a “senior statesman with impeccable credentials,” say Newsom’s travels are a clear indication that Biden is failing and the Democrats need new blood. Privately, many of them fear that infusion of new blood. Trump has been running against Biden for nearly five years – even though he’s confused him for Obama on occasion. To pivot now could mean the end of Trump, the ascendency of Newsom and may signal an end to Biden’s re-election.

Then again, it could mean none of those things. It’s just as likely to mean nothing. The president, so far, has been adamant about staying in the race, and even though The First Lady avoided the question, what that means is merely idle speculation until she speaks on the subject anew.

Yes. It’s that most wonderful time of the year.

Speculation is wild while the weather is mild.

Politicians are jolly with their favorite holiday folly.

And the national mood is tense with voters sitting on the fence.

The facts are clear, however. Donald Trump is running for office because it is his best chance to stay out of prison. He gave up defending himself in his New York civil trial for fraud. His former lieutenants continue to get ground under the bus, and as much as he screams, the long arm of the law is reaching out with a death grip for Trump’s corrupt activities.

The facts also show that Biden continues to poll poorly – particularly in swing states. He has accomplished great things in his time as president, and the First Lady and Secretary Becerra both spoke within the last week about his efforts which have come with great alacrity.

Soon, if he is to stay in the race, Biden must show that type of energy in what is sure to be a historic and grueling campaign. 

America needs and demands it.