“He has everything to lose”: Experts say indicted Trump aide “has almost no choice but to flip”

The third person charged in the new superseding indictment filed Thursday by special counsel Jack Smith’s office in former President Donald Trump’s classified documents case faces significant legal jeopardy if he does not cooperate with prosecutors, legal experts say.

Carlos De Oliveira, a 56-year-old ex-maintenance worker at Mar-a-Lago, was charged Thursday with four counts in the Justice Department’s probe into the former president’s handling of classified documents post-presidency.

According to the court filings, De Oliveira — along with Trump and his aide, Walt Nauta — has been charged with conspiracy to obstruct justice; altering, destroying, mutilating, or concealing an object; and corruptly altering, destroying, mutilating or concealing a document, record or other object, with the latter two charges “based on allegations that the defendants attempted to delete surveillance video footage at The Mar-a-Lago Club in summer 2022.” De Oliveira is also accused of knowingly and willfully making false statements in his interview with prosecutors.

“De Oliveira’s goose is cooked – on the false statements to FBI, 18 USC 1001,” New York University Law Prof. Ryan Goodman wrote on Twitter, sharing the transcript of De Oliveira’s interview with the FBI included in the indictment. “Just read this damning Q&A in new Indictment. Quite something that he has not pleaded and looked for a deal.”

During an appearance on MSNBC’s “All In with Chris Hayes,” former U.S. Attorneys Joyce Vance and Harry Litman argued that De Oliveira’s best option in the case is to cooperate with authorities.

“De Oliveira was just tailor-made to be a cooperating witness. He has everything to lose, they came at him hard, and I think what it shows is Jack Smith does not bluff,” Litman said.

Litman went on to predict that Smith’s team had approached De Oliveira about his potential indictment and gave him an ultimatum to either work with the government or face charges.

“He said, ‘No,’ and they’re bringing [charges] quickly,” Litman surmised, adding that De Oliveira “is someone who is hard to understand why he wouldn’t be cooperating against both Nauta and Trump.”

Vance said De Oliveira “is a defendant who has almost no choice but to flip,” explaining that De Oliveira’s charges have 20-year maximum prison sentences and that, if he proceeds, will likely result in him “spending a big chunk of time in prison.”

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Prosecutors “have him dead-to-center if he does not cooperate. And what do they get if he does cooperate? He is putting Trump front and center in this scheme to obstruct,” she added.

“If they can obtain De Oliveira’s cooperation, that’s probably the final nail in the coffin on this one,” Vance concluded.

But former federal prosecutor Andrew Weissmann, who served on special counsel Bob Mueller’s team, noted that De Oliveira may be banking on Trump’s potential re-election.

“Many reasons why a person may NOT flip, which Smith has to contend with: a witness thinking about his future livelihood if he remains ‘loyal’ to Trump and the potential for the case to go away if Trump (or another ally) is re-elected,” he said on Twitter.