World Cup 2022: How every team can reach the round of 16
The group stage at the 2022 World Cup continues, as 16 teams look to win a place in the knockout bracket.
Here we take a look at what every nation needs to do to get out of their group and keep the dream alive in Qatar.
QUALIFIED (1/16): France
ELIMINATED (2/16): Qatar, Canada
TIEBREAKERS
If two or more teams are level on points, they will be separated in the following order:
1) Overall group goal difference
2) Overall group goals scored
3) Head to head (H2H) result
4) H2H goal difference in all matches between the teams still level
5) H2H goals scored in all matches between the teams still level
6) Fair play points
7) Drawing of lots
– Explained: How the World Cup tiebreakers work
Full team-by-team permutations will appear after the second round of matches in each group.
– World Cup 2022: News and features | Schedule | Squads
GROUP A
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday (10 a.m. ET): Ecuador vs. Senegal, Netherlands vs. Qatar
Netherlands: Are guaranteed to qualify with a win/draw vs Qatar. Will also qualify with a defeat if Ecuador win.
If Netherlands lose and Ecuador-Senegal is a draw, Ecuador win the group with five points, Netherlands and Senegal both have four points:
– Netherlands will definitely qualify if they lose to Qatar by one goal.
– If Netherlands lose to Qatar by two goals it will come down to group goals scored. If this is level, Netherlands finish second on head-to-head.
– Netherlands cannot qualify if they lose by three or more goals.
If Netherlands and Ecuador both lose, second place will be decided on goal difference and then goals scored between the two teams, which is currently identical; if records finish identical, second place is decided on fair play (yellow and red cards).
Current fair play points
Netherlands: -1
Ecuador: -3
Ecuador: Are guaranteed to qualify with a win/draw vs. Senegal.
If Ecuador lose, they can only qualify if Netherlands also lose and the above goal-difference scenario would then apply.
If both Netherlands and Ecuador win, first place will be decided on goal difference and then goals scored. If this is identical, first place is decided on fair play points.
Senegal: Will definitely qualify with a win vs. Ecuador. A draw will also be enough if Netherlands lose taking into account the above goal-difference and head-to-head scenarios.
Cannot qualify with a draw if the other game is a draw, or if Netherlands win.
Can top the group with a win if Netherlands draw/lose.
Qatar: Have been eliminated.
GROUP B
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday (2 p.m. ET): Iran vs. United States, Wales vs. England
England: Can only be eliminated with a heavy defeat to Wales. Guaranteed to top the group with a win, and a draw will be enough unless Iran win, or USA win by at least four goals.
If Iran or USA win, England can lose by up to three goals and still go through in second. If England lose by four or more goals and Iran or USA win, England finish third behind Wales.
If England lose and Iran-USA is a draw, England will win the group as long as they don’t lose by four goals. If England lose by four or five goals, Wales will win the group with England coming in second. England would have to lose by six or more goals to possibly finish third behind Iran (depending on the number of goals Iran scored.)
Iran: Guaranteed to finish in the top two with a win vs. USA, and will win the group if England draw/lose. A draw for Iran will also be enough if Wales draw/lose. Iran cannot go through with a defeat.
United States: Must beat Iran to go through. Can top the group if England lose to Wales (or if England draw and USA win by four or more goals.)
Wales: Must beat England and hope Iran vs. USA is a draw to finish in the top two, and could top the group if they beat England by four or more goals. If USA or Iran win, Wales will need to beat England by four or more goals to finish second ahead of them.
GROUP C
Remaining fixtures
Wednesday (2 p.m. ET): Poland vs. Argentina, Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico
Poland: Need a draw vs. Argentina to qualify. Will win the group with a victory, or with a draw if Saudi Arabia draw/lose.
If Poland lose and Saudi Arabia draw, Poland will finish second if they lose by one or two goals; if Poland lose by three goals it will be decided by group goal difference and then goals scored (if records are identical, Poland finish second on head to head); if Poland lose by four or more goals it’s Saudi Arabia in second and Poland in third.
If Poland lose and Saudi Arabia win, Poland are out.
Argentina: Guaranteed to qualify with a win vs. Poland, and will do so as group winners if Saudi Arabia draw/lose. If both Argentina and Saudi Arabia win, top spot will be decided on group goal difference and goals scored; Argentina currently have the goal-difference advantage by two goals. If the scoring record is identical, Saudi Arabia win the group on head to head.
If Argentina draw vs. Poland, they are only certain of qualifying if Saudi Arabia also draw.
If Argentina draw and Saudi Arabia win, Argentina are out (Saudi Arabia and Poland qualify.)
If Argentina draw and Mexico win:
– If Mexico win by one or two goals, Argentina finish second and Mexico third
– If Mexico win by three goals it will be decided by group goal difference and then goals scored (if records are identical, Argentina finish second on head to head)
– If Mexico win by four goals, Mexico are second and Argentina third.
Argentina cannot qualify with a defeat.
Saudi Arabia: Guaranteed to qualify with a win vs. Mexico, and will do so as group winners if Poland-Argentina draw. If both Saudi Arabia and Argentina win, top spot will be decided as noted above.
If Saudi Arabia draw vs. Mexico, they are only certain of qualifying if Argentina lose.
If Saudi Arabia draw and Poland lose:
– If Poland lose by one or two goals, Saudi Arabia are out
– If Poland lose by three goals, second will be decided by group goal difference and goals scored (if records are identical, Poland finish second on head to head)
– If Poland lose by four or more goals, Saudi Arabia finish second.
Saudi Arabia cannot qualify if both games are draws, or if they lose to Mexico.
Mexico: Must beat Saudi Arabia to have a chance; and a win by four or more goals guarantees qualification.
If Poland and Mexico win, Mexico finish second.
If Poland lose and Mexico win, second place will be decided between Poland and Mexico on group goal difference and goals scored, and Mexico would have to overturn a deficit of four goals (if records are identical, for instance Poland lose 2-0 and Mexico win 2-0, second is decided on fair play points.)
Current fair play points
Poland: -4
Mexico: -6
If Poland-Argentina is a draw, and Mexico win:
– Mexico would need to win by at least three goals for second place to be decided on group goal difference and goals scored (if records are identical, Argentina finish second on head to head)
– If Mexico win by four or more goals, Mexico would finish second and Argentina third.
GROUP D
Remaining fixtures
Wednesday (10 a.m. ET): Australia vs. Denmark, Tunisia vs. France
France: Have qualified for the round of 16 and will definitely top the group if they win/draw vs. Tunisia, or if Australia fail to beat Denmark.
If France lose and Australia win, first place will be decided on goal difference and then goals scored, but the Socceroos would have to overturn a deficit of six goals.
Australia: Guaranteed to finish in the top two if they beat Denmark.
Will also qualify with a draw if Tunisia draw/lose against France.
If Australia draw and Tunisia win, Tunisia finish second on goal difference.
Australia cannot qualify with a defeat.
Denmark: Must win, and will finish second if Tunisia draw/lose.
If both Denmark and Tunisia win, second place will be decided on goal difference (both are now on -1) and then goals scored — if this is identical, second place will be decided on fair play points as the head to head is level.
Current fair play points
Denmark: -4
Tunisia: -4
Tunisia: Must win, and are guaranteed to finish second if Australia vs. Denmark is a draw. If Denmark win, second place will be decided as noted above.
Tunisia cannot qualify if Australia win.
GROUP E
Remaining fixtures
Thursday (2 p.m. ET): Costa Rica vs. Germany, Japan vs. Spain
Spain: Need a draw vs. Japan to qualify. Will win the group with a victory, or with a draw if Costa Rica draw/lose.
If Spain lose:
– And Costa Rica-Germany draw, Spain will finish second unless they lose by at least 13 goals.
– And Costa Rica win, Spain are out.
– And Germany win, second place will be decided between Spain and Germany on group goal difference and goals scored, and Germany would have to overturn a deficit of eight goals (if records are identical, second is decided on fair play points.)
Japan: Guaranteed to qualify with a win vs. Spain, and will do so as group winners if Costa Rica draw/lose. If both Japan and Costa Rica win, top spot will be decided on group goal difference and goals scored; Japan currently have the goal-difference advantage by six goals. If the scoring record is identical, Costa Rica win the group on head-to-head.
If Japan draw vs. Spain:
– Japan are only certain of qualifying if Costa Rica also draw.
– If Japan draw and Costa Rica win, Japan are out (Costa Rica and Spain qualify).
– If Japan draw and Germany win by one goal, it will be decided by group goals scored (if records are identical, Japan finish second on head-to-head)
– If Japan draw and Germany win by more than one goal, Germany are second on goal difference and Japan third.
Japan cannot qualify with a defeat.
Costa Rica: Guaranteed to qualify with a win vs. Germany, and will do so as group winners if Japan-Spain is a draw. If both Costa Rica and Japan win, top spot will be decided as noted above.
If Costa Rica draw:
– Costa Rica are only certain of qualifying if Japan lose.
– If Japan beat Spain, Spain would have to lose by 13 goals for goal difference to even be identical between Spain and Costa Rica for second.
– Costa Rica cannot qualify if both games are draws
Costa Rica cannot qualify with a defeat.
Germany: Must beat Costa Rica to have a chance, and a win by eight goals secures the top 2 in all scenarios.
If Germany and Spain win, Germany finish second.
If Germany win and Spain lose, second place will be decided between Spain and Germany on group goal difference and goals scored, and Germany would have to overturn a deficit of eight goals (if records are identical, second is decided on fair play points.)
If Germany win and Japan-Spain is a draw:
– If Japan-Spain is 0-0, Germany qualify with any win
– If Germany win by one goal, and Japan-Spain is a scoring draw, second place would be decided on group goals scored (if records are identical, eg, with 1-1 and 1-0 scorelines, Japan finish second on head to head)
– If Germany win by two or more goals, Germany would finish second on group goal difference with Japan third.
GROUP F
Remaining fixtures
Thursday (10 a.m. ET): Canada vs. Morocco, Croatia vs. Belgium
Croatia: Are guaranteed to qualify with a win/draw vs Belgium.
If Croatia lose, they can only qualify if Morocco also lose; and:
– If both games are lost by the same margin (for instance one goal, 2-1 and 1-0), Croatia will definitely finish second on goal difference
– If the games are decided by a different margins, second place will be decided between Croatia and Morocco on goal difference and then goals scored; if this is identical, it will be decided on fair play (yellow and red cards.)
Current fair play points
Croatia: -1
Morocco: -2
If Morocco and Croatia both win, first place will be decided on goal difference and then goals scored between the two teams, which Croatia currently edge by one goal; if records finish identical, first place is decided on fair play (yellow and red cards.)
Morocco: Are guaranteed to qualify with a win/draw vs Canada.
Morocco will qualify with a loss if Croatia win.
If Morocco lose and Croatia-Belgium is a draw, Croatia win the group with five points, Morocco and Belgium both have four points:
– If Morocco lose by one or two goals, Morocco will definitely qualify ahead of Belgium
– If Morocco lose by three goals it will come down to group goals scored. If this is level, Morocco finish second ahead of Belgium on head-to-head.
– Morocco cannot qualify if they lose by four or more goals.
If Morocco and Croatia both win or lose, the scenarios in the Croatia section apply.
Belgium: Will definitely qualify with a win vs. Croatia. A draw will also be enough if Morocco lose, taking into account the above goal-difference and head-to-head scenarios.
Cannot qualify with a draw if the other game is a draw, or if Morocco win.
Can top the group with a win if Morocco draw/lose.
Canada: Have been eliminated.
GROUP G
Remaining fixtures
Monday (5 a.m. ET): Cameroon vs. Serbia
Monday (11 a.m. ET): Brazil vs. Switzerland
Friday (2 p.m. ET): Cameroon vs. Brazil, Serbia vs. Switzerland
Brazil: If Serbia win/draw against Cameroon, then Brazil can book their place in the round of 16 with a victory over Switzerland.
Switzerland: If Cameroon win/draw against Serbia, then Switzerland can book their place in the round of 16 with a victory over Brazil.
Cameroon: If Cameroon lose to Serbia, they will be knocked out if Brazil win/draw.
Serbia: If Serbia lose to Cameroon, they will be knocked out if Switzerland win/draw.
GROUP H
Remaining fixtures
Monday (8 a.m. ET): South Korea vs. Ghana
Monday (2 p.m. ET): Portugal vs. Uruguay
Friday (10 a.m. ET): Ghana vs. Uruguay, South Korea vs. Portugal
Portugal: Will qualify for the round of 16 with a win against Uruguay, which will win them the group if South Korea-Ghana is a draw earlier in the day.
Ghana: Will be knocked out if they lose to South Korea.
South Korea and Uruguay cannot qualify or be eliminated on Monday.
