Weekend predictions: Arsenal to regain form vs. Bournemouth, Barcelona to win derby
Every Friday, I pick for you the best or most exciting games not to be missed in the world of football each weekend. From derbies to top-of-the-table clashes, relegation six-pointers to world-class players facing each other or other interesting tactical battles, there will be something for everyone to enjoy.
This week, we take you to England, Spain, Italy and Germany for the return of the Premier League, two huge derbies, some Championship battles, top-of-the-table clashes and big fights for European places.
The Gunners need to get back on track
Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
Premier League, Matchday 32
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. BST
After losses either side of the international break — against Man City in the Carabao Cup final and at Southampton in the FA Cup — Arsenal bounced back with a win away at Sporting CP in the Champions League quarterfinal first leg. It was not pretty, with Kai Havertz scoring deep in second-half injury time, but it was badly needed.
It’s not as if the Gunners and Mikel Arteta were in panic mode after back-to-back cup defeats, but they used the midweek trip to Lisbon to re-establish their authority. It was an efficient, solid, controlling victory, and that’s all that mattered. Now they go back to Premier League life, at home against Bournemouth, as the table toppers and with a nine-point gap over City (though Pep Guardiola’s side still have a game in hand). Beating Bournemouth would give them a 12-point lead before City face a tricky trip to Chelsea on Sunday, and Arteta will be hoping that some of his injured players (Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Jurriën Timber, Piero Hincapié) could be back.
Bournemouth are 13th in the table, but amazingly only four points off seventh place and a spot in Europe next season. But that’s a lot of teams to overtake, and a lot of results will need to go their way between now and the end of the season, but you can expect them to play their usual all-attacking intense style, even at the Emirates. They have always caused problems for Arsenal since the arrival of Andoni Iraola.
MY PREDICTION: Arsenal 2-1 Bournemouth. This is a good game for Arsenal to get themselves a step closer to the Premier League title. They will win on Saturday to put more pressure on City before they face each other at the Etihad next weekend.
A big derby in LaLiga for the team in first place
Barcelona vs. Espanyol
LaLiga, Matchday 31
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. BST
On paper, a local derby in between the two Champions League quarterfinal legs against Atlético Madrid (they lost the first 2-0) doesn’t look great for Barcelona. But they boast a seven-point lead over Real Madrid atop LaLiga and, even with a Clasico still to come in May, they can afford to drop some points on the way. This is, nevertheless, a big local derby, so Hansi Flick and his players must take it seriously.
Despite Raphinha‘s injury, Barca’s attack doesn’t seem to have suffered much, as we saw against Atlético in the league last weekend when Marcus Rashford (who replaced the Brazilian on the left wing), scored and the team created many chances. Lamine Yamal is also in unbelievable form, and it’s hard to see how Espanyol could stop them all. Midfielder Frenkie de Jong is still out, but Jules Koundé is back to steady the defense after coming on for the last half hour at the weekend. Barcelona lost Marc Bernal to another injury, but they have some cover in midfield (Marc Casadó, Eric García, Gavi).
Barça have not lost this fixture since 2018, and Espanyol have been in a downward spiral since Flick & Co. won the reverse fixture 2-0 at the start of January, going a stunning 13 league games without a win.
MY PREDICTION: Barcelona 3-1 Espanyol. There won’t be much of a match on Saturday at Camp Nou. Even sandwiched between two huge Champions League games, Barcelona will be too strong for their neighbors and will continue their great run with a seventh straight LaLiga win.
2:54
Marcotti gives Barcelona a 40% chance of overturning deficit vs. Atletico
Gab and Juls make their second leg predictions for Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona and Liverpool vs. PSG in the Champions League.
Can Pep Guardiola & Co. keep the title race alive?
Chelsea vs. Manchester City
Premier League, Matchday 32
Kickoff: Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. BST
After losing four games in a row before the international break (PSG twice in the Champions League, plus Newcastle and Everton in the league) and conceding 12 goals along the way, Chelsea beat League One side Port Vale 7-0 in the FA Cup on Saturday. But that game can’t hide their poor form and sluggish momentum. Manager Liam Rosenior is under pressure as the Blues, sixth in the table, can’t afford to miss out on Champions League football next season. They need points badly to catch Liverpool (a point above), while Aston Villa and Manchester United are respectively six and seven points clear in fourth and third.
This is a massive game at Stamford Bridge for Rosenior and his players, though midfield talisman Enzo Fernández will be out again after being suspended two games by the club for mentioning his future and saying he would like to live in Madrid during an interview.
City, on the other hand, have found their mojo, winning the Carabap Cup against Arsenal and destroying Liverpool 4-0 last weekend in the FA Cup. But before hosting Arsenal next week, they need a great performance and result on Sunday to gain even more confidence. Erling Haaland scored a hat trick against Liverpool, with a first assist from Antoine Semenyo since he moved to the club in January; Rayan Cherki also seems to have brought something a bit extra since returning. Yet even against a misfiring Chelsea team at the moment, this is a tough away game for City.
MY PREDICTION: Chelsea 1-2 Manchester City. City will have to respond to whatever Arsenal do on Saturday, as it could be a nine, 10- or even 12-point gap by the time they kick off against Chelsea. But they will show resilience and character to get a very important win.
Can Wrexham keep their promotion dream alive?
Birmingham City vs. Wrexham
English Championship, Matchday 42
Kickoff: Sunday, 8 a.m. ET / 1 p.m. BST
This is a huge game in the Championship, but it is not a derby and Birmingham have nothing to play for as they are guaranteed to stay up already. This one is big because it is a battle of American owners, Tom Brady vs. Ryan Reynolds/Rob Mac. It’s NFL royalty vs. Hollywood royalty, and big ambitions vs. big ambitions.
Birmingham are 16th in the table; they can’t go up or down and have hit a rough patch lately with three losses in a row and only one win in their past eight (one draw and six defeats.) Overall, you would say that it has been a good season after they were promoted back to the Championship, and it has been a great learning process for manager Chris Davies, 41, and a young team (August Priske, Jay Stansfield, Jhon Solis, and James Beadle are all under 24).
The problem for the Blues is that Wrexham are also newly promoted but have done much better with their own project. Wrexham are seventh, only two points behind Southampton (having played one game more) and the last playoff place despite being winless in their past two league matches (draw at West Brom and a heavy 5-1 loss at home against Southampton on Tuesday).
Even if their form has been a bit patchy of late, and even if their last two league games of the season come against league leaders Coventry and third-place Middlesbrough, they have some winnable games until then. But they have to capitalize on Sunday. Josh Windass, with 12 league goals and five assists so far, will be the key player here, alongside Kiefer Moore in attack.
MY PREDICTION: Birmingham 1-1 Wrexham. Birmingham would love to spoil the party for Wrexham and hinder their dream of promotion. They will be aggressive and the crowd will be up for it too.
1:30
Moreno: Bayern Munich can raise level against Real Madrid
Alejandro Moreno expects Bayern Munich to improve further in the second leg, warning Real Madrid despite their 2-1 win at the Santiago Bernabéu.
German Bundesliga, Matchday 29
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. BST
This weekend sees second play sixth in the Bundesliga, as Borussia Dortmund host Bayer Leverkusen — two teams who need to seal Champions League football again next season. Dortmund are almost there, following their comeback win at Stuttgart last weekend, with two goals late in added time. They are 11 points clear of third place; meanwhile Leverkusen, in sixth with 49 points, face a battle to catch Hoffenheim (50) ahead or Stuttgart and Leipzig (53). But it is not impossible. They just have to put together a winning run, having not won back-to-back games since February.
Before Leverkusen’s remontada against Wolfsburg at the weekend — coming from 3-1 down to win 6-3 — they had won only one of their past nine games in all competitions, with two losses and six draws. They are capable of playing well and causing problems to big teams, as we saw against Arsenal (1-1) in the Champions League round of 16 first leg or against Bayern Munich in March in the Bundesliga (1-1). They are just too up and down at the moment., especially if they want to trouble a Dortmund side that have been pretty awesome this season behind Bayern.
Dortmund will be wary of the talent Leverkusen have in attack, though they have the second-best defense in the league with 28 goals conceded, only one more than Bayern.
MY PREDICTION: Dortmund 2-2 Leverkusen. I think this will be a high-scoring game between two very attacking sides. Leverkusen have to go for it if they want to keep their hopes of making the Champions League, while Dortmund showed at Stuttgart last weekend how good they can be in transition.
Atalanta to open up race for Europe?
Atalanta vs. Juventus
Italian Serie A, Matchday 32
Kickoff: Saturday, 2:45 p.m ET / 7:45 p.m. BST
Serie A is full of massive games at the moment as the top seven keep playing each other in a very exciting race for Champions League and European places — it’s certainly more dramatic than the title race, which seems nailed on now for Inter. In Bergamo on Saturday, we have a huge clash between the hosts (seventh place), who are a point behind Roma in sixth and only four behind Juventus in fifth, whom they face this weekend.
After a great draw against Inter in between the humiliating defeats to Bayern Munich in the Champions League (10-2 on aggregate), Atalanta have won their last two league games and have to continue this form on Saturday. In the absence of Gianluca Scamacca, forwards Nikola Krstovic and Giacomo Raspadori did the job of scoring against Lecce on Monday, while playmaker Charles De Ketelaere pulled the strings with two assists. Atalanta have lost only two games at home in the league all season. It will also be a very interesting battle tactically between Raffaele Palladino and Luciano Spalletti on the two benches, as the pair represent the new and old guard of Italian coaching.
Spalletti and Juventus are on a six-game unbeaten streak, five of those in Serie A, although they didn’t face any big opponents in that time apart from Roma, where they drew 3-3. The front three of Francisco Conceição, Jonathan David and Kenan Yildiz, who started against Genoa at the weekend, can be a bit hit and miss — especially David, who has not scored since Feb. 1. Loïs Openda and Dusan Vlahovic stayed on the bench in that game as Juve were 2-0 up early and created enough chances to score more, but the club need more from their forwards, even though midfielders Weston McKennie, Manuel Locatelli and Khéphren Thuram are in great form.
MY PREDICTION: Atalanta 2-1 Juventus. I think Atalanta will be too strong at home for a Juventus side in decent form. I expect Juve to play for a draw Saturday, which I think will invite trouble from Atalanta’s multi-pronged attack.
And finally, the East Anglia Derby
Norwich City vs. Ipswich Town
English Championship, Matchday 42
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. BST
One of the biggest rivalries in English football, Saturday’s East Anglian derby promises to be explosive between Norwich and Ipswich at Carrow Road. Both have a lot of play for, in addition to the animosity between the two clubs and the pride either side would gain from beating their arch rivals.
The hosts are ninth in the table and with a chance (albeit a slim one) to still make the playoffs. But for them, it is more about continuing their great form in this fixture, as they have lost only one of the past 15 derbies, with eight wins and six draws — their only loss in that stretch was October’s meeting at Portman Road, which ended 3-1 to Ipswich. So Norwich will want revenge at home and will also want to harm the promotion ambitions of their rivals.
Since Philippe Clement arrived as manager, Norwich have been much better: They have lost only once in the league since February, and that was at in-form Southampton. They are very strong defensively too, with only three goals conceded in their past seven league matches.
For Ipswich, there is more at stake. Kieran McKenna and his team are second in the table, level on points with Middlesbrough and Millwall for the second automatic promotion spot to the Premier League. It would be amazing for them, a year after being relegated, to be back there so quickly. They are also in great form, with only one league defeat since the end of January (at Wrexham). Despite some disappointing draws (vs. Leicester and vs. Stoke), they have slowly climbed up the table to be in a strong position now, with two games in hand over the teams behind them in the race for promotion.
MY PREDICTION: Norwich 1-1 Ipswich. I don’t think it will be a pretty game. Big derbies like this rarely are, and I don’t think there will be much to separate the teams. Therefore, I’m picking a draw, which wouldn’t satisfy either side.