Man City’s alternate universe: Guardiola, Haaland to Arsenal? Arteta to PSG?

On Sept. 1, 2008, the course of Premier League history changed. Manchester City were bought by the Abu Dhabi United Group (ADUG), led by Sheikh Mansour — an Emirati royal, the vice president of the United Arab Emirates, and one of the richest men in the world — for around £200 million.

What followed over the next 18 years was a flood of cash — including over £3 billion spent on transfers — that propelled City to the top of the sport, allowing them to sign 123 players and sweep up trophy after trophy. Under ADUG ownership, the club has won 26 of them: eight Premier League titles, four FA Cups, seven Carabao Cups, four Community Shields, a UEFA Champions League, a Club World Cup and a Super Cup.

But in September 2026, an independent commission ruled that the club was guilty of 114 charges in relation to breaches of the Premier League’s spending rules, while artificially inflating its sponsorship figures by more than £830 million in a nine-year period between 2009-18. City maintain their innocence and have appealed the decision, but potential sanctions are being scoped out and could include expulsion from the league, a massive points deduction, or relegation.

It begs the question: What would the sport have looked like if City had not spent in the way that they did? Who would have won the eight league titles? Where would the superstars (like Erling Haaland) they signed have gone instead? And what would manager Pep Guardiola’s career have looked like without a decade-long stint in Manchester?

Here, we paint an alternate reality where City — still owned and backed by Sheikh Mansour — spent modestly (within the rules), never won the 2012 league title, never signed Haaland, and never appointed Guardiola. Much like a Marvel movie set across the multiverse, we can speculate as to what might have transpired in this timeline.

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New Premier League winners are crowned

What actually happened: The 2011 FA Cup success started a flood of league trophies as City won titles in 2011-12 (on goal difference), 2013-14 (on the final day of the season), 2017-18 (with a record 100 points and 19-point margin), 2018-19 (by a single point), 2020-21 (during a COVID-impacted season), 2021-22 (on the final day), 2022-23 (as part of treble including FA Cup and Champions League), and 2023-24 (the first club to win four consecutive English top-flight titles.)

Alternate reality: In this timeline, City experience a much more mundane life. They don’t spend lavishly, they don’t destabilize their closest competitors by continually signing their players, so they don’t make the definitive leap to stardom. On the plus side, they also don’t fall into financial ruin … which was a genuine threat before the Abu Dhabi takeover.

No titles for City: 2011-18

One of the Premier League’s most iconic moments never happens. Sky Sports commentator Martin Tyler never screams this famous “Agüeroooooooo!” line when Sergio Agüero scores a 94th-minute winner against QPR to win the 2011-12 title, because Agüero never joins City for £35 million in 2011. Here, City can’t use the preceding three years to spend hundreds of millions and assemble a title-winning team.

Instead, Manchester United win the 2011-12 Premier League, rather than losing it on goal difference with 89 points, and Sir Alex Ferguson’s title count ends at 14 — not 13 — when he retires after winning another the following season. In 2013-14, Liverpool secure the title, not City, as Steven Gerrard’s slip against Chelsea makes no difference. Brendan Rodgers wins the Premier League, but the club still hires Jürgen Klopp in 2015, as Rodgers simply gets a bit more time before imploding and the German arrives.

Chelsea sign several players (we’ll cover them in more detail later) who would have ended up at City — the likes of David Silva and Kyle Walker — so their two titles in the next three years under Jose Mourinho and then Antonio Conte, as well as the incredible 2015-16 title run of Leicester City (this multiverse is not cruel), remain unchanged.

And what of City’s centurion season in 2017-18? That 100-point haul stands as a Premier League record and was sealed in the most dramatic of circumstances, with Gabriel Jesus scoring at the death on the final day to beat Southampton, but the team that achieved it was not compiled in this timeline, so it goes to Manchester United instead and Mourinho gets himself another medal.

That brings us to the end of the period during which City have been charged. However, without the successes between 2009-18, the club has no empire to continue to dominate from, so it changes the face of the next seven years too.

The next seven years: 2019-26

Klopp’s Liverpool win back-to-back titles in 2018-19 and 2019-20 — the one they actually won — and claim another in 2021-22.

In the middle of that, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer leads Manchester United to a title, which changes the very nature of how he is perceived as a coach — though it’s fair to assume that the club’s struggles to replace the legendary Ferguson continue in the same vein, albeit with a few more titles, and he doesn’t last much longer.

Arsenal get in on the act, too. Their torturous 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, in which they were narrowly beaten to the title by City twice, take on a very different inflection as they canter to victory and set up a dynasty of their own. (Stay tuned for who their manager is from 2021 onwards.)

But if one thing has been proven in every multiverse, it’s that no matter how much money Chelsea spend on megastars, nothing can make them consistent. In this timeline, they’ll win a handful of cups and challenge much more strongly for the league, but the revolving door of managers means their star players never truly settle and drive them to another title after 2016-17.

City’s rivals grow stronger

What happened: Manchester City’s strategy to accelerate into the elite was to spend big in a relatively methodical way early on, but the key was to sign their competitors’ star players.

From Arsenal, they took Emmanuel Adebayor (£25 million) and Kolo Touré (£16 million) in 2009, Samir Nasri (£24 million) and Gaël Clichy (£10 million) in 2011, and Bacary Sagna (free) in 2014. From Everton they took Joleon Lescott (£22 million) in 2009, Jack Rodwell (£12 million) in 2012 and John Stones (£47.5 million) in 2016. From Aston Villa, they took Gareth Barry (£12 million) in 2009, James Milner (£18 million, plus Stephen Ireland) in 2010, and Fabian Delph (£8 million) in 2015.

But there was another, really big one that sent shockwaves through Manchester and beyond. City brought in Argentina striker Carlos Tevez from West Ham United for £25.5 million on a weekly wage exceeding £200,000 per week — for context, this was huge in 2009 — and in the process took him away from Manchester United, who had signed him on loan for two years and had every intention of completing a permanent deal.

All of this set City up to elbow their way into the elite, hampering other clubs in the process, and even spawning that famous “Welcome to Manchester” billboard for Tevez’s signing.

Alternate reality: Tevez completes a permanent move to Manchester United in 2009, which stabilizes the club’s attack in the wake of Cristiano Ronaldo’s world-record £80 million move to Real Madrid the year before. The Argentine continues to dovetail with Wayne Rooney for years, meaning Ferguson’s final years at the club are seen out with a bang and two more league titles before he retires in 2013.

Arsenal’s barren run ends

Arsenal, meanwhile, avoid the talent drain to City and instead keep Adebayor, Nasri & Co. in north London. It’s not enough to convince Robin van Persie to stick around — he still joins Man United, leading to a short spell where the Dutchman joins Tevez and Rooney in a ferocious attack — but the Gunners stay strong enough to win a few more domestic cups under Arsène Wenger. As a result, the real-life barren run of zero trophies between 2005 and 2014 never occurs, which means the Frenchman’s reign is looked back on even more fondly.

Bale stays at Spurs for a bit longer

On the other side of north London, Tottenham Hotspur — who narrowly missed out on Champions League football at least three times during City’s illicit period — enjoy something of a golden era. Playing regularly in Europe’s top competition allows them to keep Wales winger Gareth Bale a bit longer, who then powers them to a FA Cup win in 2013.

Yes, Real Madrid still sign him for over €100 million, but they have to wait two more years until 2015.

Everton and Aston Villa better off

A chasing pack containing Everton and Aston Villa continually jostle for European spots and occasionally reach the Champions League. Lescott stays and anchors the Toffees’ defense for another five seasons, while Barry sees out a long career with Villa, preventing the club from taking the nosedive it actually does.

Newcastle United are still taken over by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) in 2021, but with no City model to follow there isn’t the desire to spend much to sign new players and the club continue to fight in midtable rather than challenge for Europe.

Guardiola’s career trajectory impacts others

What actually happened: Having cut his teeth in management with Barcelona B in 2007-08, Guardiola took the senior reins at Camp Nou and was responsible for coaching the most aesthetically pleasing style the world had ever seen. It was successful, too: Barça won three LaLiga titles, two Copas del Rey, two Champions Leagues, two Super Cups and two Club World Cups; including all six trophies the club competed for in the calendar year of 2011.

He left in 2012 for a year’s sabbatical spent in New York City, before returning to management to take over Bayern Munich in 2013, where seven titles in four years followed.

City’s appointment of Guardiola for the 2016-17 season was a landmark moment and backed by a significant cash injection, as well as executives Ferran Soriano and Txiki Begiristain — who knew him well as a result of decades-long friendships and working relationships at Barcelona — Guardiola thrived before stepping away this summer.

Guardiola is regarded as one of the greatest-ever influences in the sport and during his 10 years at City, he had a profound effect on several major figures in the game today, which changes a few things for other clubs, too.

Alternate reality: Here, City are nowhere near the level required to persuade Guardiola to join them; they haven’t a hope of attracting him to the project and can’t spend the kind of money on transfers as he requires. That takes the Spaniard in an entirely different direction after leaving Bayern and he takes another one-year sabbatical.

PSG dominance

Of course, when he returns, Guardiola has his pick of jobs and opts for Paris Saint-Germain, who appoint him instead of Unai Emery in 2016. All the talk is about whether he will reunite with Barcelona legend Lionel Messi in the French capital, but in 2017, Les Parisiens break the world record to sign Barcelona winger Neymar for €222 million, handing Guardiola his superstar difference-maker in attack, while Kylian Mbappé joins for €180 million a year later from Monaco too.

Those two arrivals, combined with Guardiola’s tactical nous, is enough to disrupt a period of Champions League dominance that would have otherwise belonged to Real Madrid and Liverpool. Messi never joins, but Guardiola wins two Champions Leagues and helps Neymar to a Ballon d’Or, then abruptly departs in 2020 as he stays true to the pattern displayed in his career to date: Never exceeding four years at one club.

Another sabbatical follows during the COVID-19 pandemic, as Guardiola sees no reason to rush back to the sport while it represents a shell of its usual self.

A dynasty at Arsenal awaits

Then, in 2021, having managed in Spain, Germany and France, and with Italian clubs unable to offer the kind of dominant project he desires, Guardiola makes a much-anticipated move to England.

The top clubs make their pitch. Manchester United’s effort is half-hearted, as Solskjaer has just led them to the Premier League title in 2020-21 and they see no major reason to rock the boat; Chelsea are dismissed as too chaotic; Liverpool are building a machine under Klopp. That leaves Arsenal, who have been scratching around for a solution since Wenger departed on good terms in 2018.

It feels a perfect fit: Guardiola’s style matches the way the great modern Gunners sides have played. An epic era of success follows, starting with the 2022-23 title and continuing into Europe — the one title that always eluded Wenger.

Mikel Arteta takes over at PSG

Arteta no longer has his three-year apprenticeship from 2016-19 as Guardiola’s assistant coach to give him the grounding he needed before leaping at the chance to be the main man at Arsenal. (He chose that route over a coaching role at Tottenham under Mauricio Pochettino and an offer to manage Arsenal’s academy team from Wenger.)

So in this timeline, where Guardiola never joins City and instead takes the PSG job in 2016, Arteta still declines those roles so he can follow Pep to France and learn his craft. When Guardiola departs in 2020, Les Parisiens seek continuity and Arteta sees an opportunity to step up. It takes him time to settle, but he is still there today to battle his former mentor for European supremacy.

Vincent Kompany becomes Mr. Borussia Dortmund

Another of Guardiola’s disciples, Kompany, does not come into contact with the Spaniard as a player at City. And rather than become a legend at the Etihad Stadium, he leaves for Borussia Dortmund in 2013, where he and Mats Hummels form a superb central defensive partnership.

Kompany’s personality ensures he still ends up in management once he hangs up his boots, but his influences and mentors are different, so he does not go on to espouse Guardiola’s style; instead, he coaches a rather more frenetic, Bundesliga-inspired version. He still goes back to Anderlecht to finish his career, but Dortmund come calling again to offer him his first major step into the dugout in 2021.

Luis Enrique back to Barcelona, Enzo Maresca ends up at Tottenham

Luis Enrique — who in this reality resigns from his post as Spain national team manager after defeat in the Euro 2020 semifinals — returns to Barcelona in 2021 instead of taking the PSG job.

Enrique hires Maresca (City’s current manager, in reality) as his assistant and shows him the secrets of coaching a swashbuckling brand of possession soccer — instead of Guardiola fine-tuning his possession style. Then, after four long years of study, Tottenham offer Maresca the chance to succeed Ange Postecoglou in 2025 and he takes the leap into management.

Where Man City’s star players end up: Silva to Chelsea; Haaland to Arsenal?

What actually happened: Over the past 18 years, City have signed countless stars to power their success to the tune of €3.64 billion. In terms of strikers alone, they moved from Tevez to Agüero to Haaland, with Jesus and Edin Džeko and more sprinkled in between. Every other position more or less followed suit.

Alternate reality: Almost none of those players sign for City. The club is following the financial rules and is simply not in play for them as it isn’t successful enough, can’t pay enough in fees or wages, and doesn’t have Guardiola as manager to tip the scales. This version of City in the transfer window is more akin to Newcastle United; able to make the occasional big signing, but having to let their star names depart regularly in order to balance the books.

Vincent Kompany (2008): He signs for City from Hamburg for around £6 million, but with a lack of silverware and the club’s need to break even, the defender moves to Borussia Dortmund in 2013.

Carlos Tevez (2009): Joins Manchester United permanently and continues his dovetailing brilliance with Rooney in attack.

David Silva (2010): Joins Chelsea and flourishes as an attacking midfielder alongside Frank Lampard and Michael Essien.

Yaya Touré (2010): The reported fallout between he and Guardiola at Barcelona still happens, but instead of City, Touré joins his brother Kolo at Arsenal. Finally, the Gunners land their Patrick Vieira replacement in midfield.

Sergio Agüero (2011): Real Madrid crave his signature, but Atlético refuse to do business with their archrivals, so Agüero moves to Juventus instead. Four years and over 100 goals later, Madrid offer the Italian side €80 million and the Old Lady gladly accept, using the money to sign Paulo Dybala from Palermo.

Fernandinho (2015): He still moves to City from Shakhtar Donetsk for £34 million in 2013 but then joins Tottenham as part of the squad rebuilt with the money earned from Bale’s mega-transfer to Real Madrid (which happens in 2015 in this reality.)

Raheem Sterling (2015): He continues at Liverpool, happy with the club’s 2013-14 Premier League title win and their consistent ability to compete for trophies. He signs a massive new contract at the behest of Rodgers and eventually moves to Chelsea years later.

Kevin De Bruyne (2015): With De Bruyne’s reputation hit by his “failure” at Chelsea, City still sign him as their big splash in the market for a club-record £55 million. The difference is he plays only a handful of seasons there, as his brilliance is quickly established and he’s scooped up by one of Europe’s elite clubs.

John Stones (2016): Chelsea’s strong interest lands his signature from Everton; he anchors their defensive line for a decade and replaces John Terry, who retires in 2017.

Aymeric Laporte (2018): The Athletic Bilbao defender signs for Guardiola’s Barcelona instead of Clément Lenglet.

Kyle Walker (2017): Joins Chelsea from Spurs and thoroughly enjoys himself as a lung-busting wingback in Antonio Conte’s 3-4-3 formation.

Bernardo Silva (2017): Moves to Barcelona just in time to take up Andrés Iniesta’s mantle. As a result, the club doesn’t spend €40 million to sign Paulinho or €120 million on Philippe Coutinho from Liverpool.

Rodri (2019): Bayern Munich activate the €70 million release clause in his Atletico Madrid contract, allowing them to prepare for life after Thiago Alcântara, who leaves the following year.

Rúben Dias (2020): Manchester United swoop for the Portugal center back because they’re struggling to believe in Victor Lindelöf as Harry Maguire’s central defensive partner.

Jack Grealish (2021): Also joins Man United, meaning Jadon Sancho doesn’t, but his £100 million move is just as unsuccessful as Sancho’s was in reality.

Erling Haaland (2022): The whole world competes for the Norway wonderkid’s signature as he has a €60 million release clause at Dortmund, but Arsenal win the race as they’re able to woo him using a tried-and-trusted question: Would you like to come and play for Guardiola?

Man City are a midtable team

What actually happened: At the time of the Abu Dhabi takeover, City were in dire financial straits. Owner Thaksin Shinawatra was unable to fund the club’s day-to-day activities — let alone make big splashes in the transfer market — because his assets had been frozen in Thailand due to criminal proceedings being brought against him. It forced City to borrow money to pay costs, which becomes a vicious cycle.

Alternate reality: Given the clubs’ long history of bouncing around English football’s lower divisions and financial uncertainties, the fans gladly accept stability without a major takeover. Sheikh Mansour still takes over the club to save them from Thaksin, but while there’s no mega-spending there’s also no financial peril to speak of and zero chance of collapse. The only monetary frustrations the club have are that under the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability (PSR) rules, they can’t spend their owner’s immeasurable wealth to truly go shoulder-to-shoulder with the big teams.

City float between finishing fifth and 10th in the league, rising and falling depending on fortune, injuries and whatever crisis envelops other clubs. They punch upwards into the Champions League a couple of times and battle well in the cup competitions.

Focus on youth

They’re still able to sign very good players — De Bruyne still joins in 2015, for example — but don’t get to retain him for as long as they’d like. Like Newcastle (and others) in real life, this version of City give in to a big bid and sanction his departure. Still, at least their PSR situation is sorted.

Also helping the PSR situation is a steady flow of youth graduates making it through to the first team squad. OK, their empire doesn’t expand to the point where they become a major player in Europe, but the prodigious local talent is still brought through. Defender Micah Richards plays the same integral role after coming through in 2005 and playing for a decade, while winger Shaun Wright-Phillips’ second spell at the club is longer, more fruitful and ends with him being labelled a hero.

Other academy prospects who in real life never stood a chance at making the grade, such as Kieran Trippier and Dedryck Boyata, have strong stints at the club. Later down the line, City still produce midfielder Cole Palmer (debut in 2020) and fullback Rico Lewis (2022) — both born in Greater Manchester — and the fans get to see plenty more of them. Lewis is a mainstay in a more traditional right back role, while Palmer treats the fans to much more of his talents in attack before moving on.

Managerial merry-go-round

Managerial stability for City is but a dream, and they cycle through options in the dugout just as quickly as every other club in search for a manager who can break their glass ceiling. Robert Martínez is hired off the back of his swashbuckling Wigan Athletic stint; André Villas-Boas is given a third (and final) crack at the Premier League after failing with Chelsea and Tottenham; Alan Pardew acts a stabilizer from 2015-17, before Bournemouth’s Eddie Howe is appointed for a long stint and wins the Carabao Cup in 2019, providing a relatively quick success story for his term.

This is a much dimmer reality than the one City actually experienced, where they leapt from title to title, played incredible attacking football, continually signed elite players, and were fortunate enough to be led by one of the greatest managers in history — but it’s one many other law-abiding clubs would long for.

And, in a true reality that could see City relegated in disgrace this season, it’s one their fans likely would have embraced back in 2008.