Mike Johnson’s speakership is in trouble

President Donald Trump declared last week that House Speaker Mike Johnson “has been a fantastic speaker,” making it clear that he considers Johnson to be one of his most important subordinates. Trump wasn’t doing Johnson any favors. With his latest approval ratings firmly in the thirties, the president is increasingly seen as more of an albatross than a benefit to the GOP. And right now, with House Republicans on the verge of a full-scale mutiny, Johnson needs all the help he can get. 

In fairness, Johnson is not the first Republican speaker to find himself in that situation. In fact, it has become something of a ritual sacrifice for the leader of the House GOP to be unceremoniously deposed by his own members. Johnson himself won the post after his predecessor, former Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Ca., was removed from his post after a painful series of votes in which the caucus finally settled on the virtually unknown congressman from Louisiana to lead them. 

McCarthy had a tumultuous nine-month tenure after the Republican members staged a raucous spectacle by taking an historic 15 votes to elect him to the job. Before him, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, the party’s 2012 vice presidential nominee, had been pushed to take the job when the caucus forced out former Speaker John Boehner. But Ryan was so disillusioned that he ended up quitting politics altogether after just three years. Boehner abruptly quit when he lost support after deigning to compromise. His predecessor, Illinois Rep. Dennis Hastert — now a convicted sex offender — resigned due to scandal, as did Georgia Rep. Newt Gingrich before him. 

Republicans eat their own. And apparently a speaker of the House is a delicacy. So it’s not surprising that Johnson would find himself on the run at this point in his term.

Republicans govern in total chaos. But Johnson’s case is unique in one important respect: In the past few years, the reason GOP speakers failed was because the most extreme conservatives in the caucus would not accept any kind of compromise with Democrats in order to pass legislation. And even when the “compromise” was really a win, they refused to take yes for an answer. They wanted to dominate the opposition, to pound them into submission, and if they couldn’t have that they would rather have nothing. Boehner, Ryan and McCarthy all fell prey to that puerile intransigence. Johnson was one of those guys himself and, for the most part, he’s been able to keep his hardcore tea party types in line. His resistance is coming from a number of other directions. 

One of the biggest thorns in his side, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, has been trying to depose him almost from the beginning. Back in March, she filed a motion to vacate the chair — essentially) a no-confidence vote —  because Johnson “betrayed our conference and broke our rules” by working with Democrats to pass a bill to fund the government. The fractious right-wing did not join her in rebellion, instead opting to express support for Johnson.

Nevertheless, Greene persisted. She complained about his support for FISA reauthorization and the foreign aid bill, making demand after demand until she finally triggered a vote that resulted in the Democrats stepping in to save him with a vote of 359-43. The 10 Republicans who voted with Greene included a few of the usual right-wing suspects, but the rest were unpredictable cranks; most of the conservatives stuck with Johnson. He is, after all, one of their own. 

That quieted the restiveness among the ranks for a time, but Johnson has always had to look over his shoulder. Now, Greene has now decided to turn in her MAGA hat and will be resigning next month. True to form, she is planning to take one more shot at Johnson before she departs. According to MSNOW, she’s once again trying to round up the nine votes needed to bring up a motion to vacate the chair and oust Johnson. While most people think she won’t succeed, her complaints about Johnson are now being echoed by many in the caucus, most pointedly by some of the women who are very unhappy about his dismissive attitude toward them. 

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Greene complained to CNN that Johnson has sidelined them and doesn’t take them seriously. Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., took to the pages of the New York Times to rail against his leadership. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., a member of the House leadership, called Johnson a habitual liar and told the Wall Street Journal that she doesn’t think he would have the votes to survive if a vote were held. “It’s that widespread,” she said. 

Although they have been the most vocally defiant, it isn’t just the women. The New York Times’ Annie Karni reported on a number of others who have soured on Johnson’s leadership. Rep. Kevin Kiley, a California Republican facing a loss of his seat due to redistricting (precipitated by the snowball effect from Trump’s demand that Texas gerrymander five more seats for Republicans) said that “the overriding issue is the House has not been at the forefront of driving policymaking, or the agenda in Washington.” In other words, they’ve become a rubber stamp for Trump’s increasingly unpopular agenda. 

Members are still angry about Johnson’s decision to send them home for two months during the shutdown, and those in vulnerable swing districts are desperate to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, knowing that allowing them to lapse will be the kiss of death. Johnson, following his own deep hostility to any kind of government health care program, is refusing. Even Trump was briefly willing to extend them for a couple of years, but the speaker and others quickly informed him that plan was a non-starter with the right wing, which is excited by the idea that people on the hated Obamacare will lose their insurance.

Johnson’s caucus has had enough. They’re rebelling with discharge petitions to force votes against his will and tanking rule votes that would bring bills Johnson wants to see passed to the floor. Until recently, such actions were unheard of. Discharge petitions like the one that made the administration release the Epstein files were always seen as a desperate Hail Mary that never worked. Washington insiders would roll their eyes and scoff when anyone would suggest that it be tried. Not anymore. As POLITICO has reported, since Johnson took over, members have managed to defy him by “getting the required 218 signatures needed to force votes on legislation he had blocked — more than in the prior 30 years combined.”

Mike Johnson is in trouble, and as the GOP stares at the likelihood of a possible electoral bloodbath in the 2026 midterms, he may not last through the next year. While he won’t have to deal with his nemesis, Marjorie Taylor Greene, any more, the rebellion she started has become a full-fledged insurrection. In what’s become a GOP tradition, “the ousting of the speaker” is likely to come sooner rather than later. The only question is: Who in the world would want the thankless job?