The state of the union — and accountability for Donald Trump — is stronger than we think

As is customary, when President Joe Biden delivered the State of the Union address, he declared, “The state of the Union is strong.” The same can be said of the state of accountability for Donald Trump.

The legal cases against the former president and his enablers are making significant progress in achieving consequences. He is facing mammoth civil liability and he will likely soon join some of his closest associates in sustaining his first criminal convictions. While there is also considerable uncertainty in some of the cases, the overall pattern points to accountability.

Just this week, Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer at the Trump Organization, pleaded guilty to perjury, admitting that he repeatedly lied in an apparent effort to protect his former boss. This was the second guilty plea secured by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg against Weisselberg, following an earlier one to 15 counts of tax fraud in his dealings with Trump. 

Weisselberg is just the latest occupant of Trump’s collapsing house of cards; a long list of people and entities associated with him have been convicted. The Trump Organization and another business bearing his name were convicted of criminal tax fraud in 2022 with prosecutors telling the jury that the misconduct was “explicitly sanctioned” by the former president. In the Fulton County election interference case, Kenneth Chesebro, Sidney Powell, and Jenna Ellis all pleaded guilty in October. Other examples of legal accountability abound, including for Trump’s former White House advisors Steve Bannon, Peter Navarro, and Michael Flynn, his erstwhile political guides Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, and many more.

Now Trump himself is being hit by the courts, starting with major financial ramifications for his actions. He was found by a civil jury in 2023 to have sexually assaulted E. Jean Carroll. Following the multi-million dollar verdict in that case, Trump was in January ordered to pay a staggering $83.3 million in damages for defaming Carroll, and then commanded to pay more than $450 million last month (including prejudgment interest) in the civil fraud case brought by New York attorney general Letitia James. The damages levied against Trump were important steps for holding him accountable. They are so large that his lawyers have said he may have to sell properties to pay them. 

Even more serious consequences likely loom in New York, where Trump made his home and his reputation for most of his life. DA Bragg’s 2016 election case lies just ahead, with jury selection beginning on March 25. Trump is alleged to have hidden information about a sex scandal from voters following an eruption of controversy over his  “Access Hollywood” tape. The evidence that Trump falsified records to cover up that campaign corruption is damning. If found guilty of the 34 felonies, Trump could face incarceration. Each count carries a penalty of up to four years in prison. 

It is when we get beyond the New York case – expected to take about 6 weeks — that the state of accountability becomes murkier. But with three additional serious criminal cases on the docket, it is more likely than not that at least one more makes it through to trial. While there are no guarantees when it comes to criminal cases — especially ones against the notoriously slippery former president — the likelihood that at least one of those cases is tried makes the state of accountability stronger still.

In the January 6 federal case, while the decision to give a hearing to Trump’s claims of absolute presidential immunity by the justices of the Supreme Court that Trump helped to shape will delay the case, there is still more than enough time for a trial if the justices resolve the case on the same timetable as they applied in the 14th Amendment case, where a decision came less than a month after oral argument.  

The immunity question can be decided quickly if the Supreme Court makes this as much of a priority as they just did with Trump’s ballot status in Colorado in advance of the Super Tuesday primary. If the justices care that much about finishing that case before an intermediate primary date, they should care a whole lot more about finishing the immunity case in time for a verdict before the presidential election in November. The American public needs to know whether Trump is guilty of abusing the very powers he seeks to recover before they decide whether to restore him to office. 

In Fulton County, the case against Trump’s election interference in Georgia has been delayed for weeks by a distraction manufactured by Trump and his co-conspirator, Michael Roman to focus on the DA in the case. After nearly twenty hours in court, however, Trump and his allies have failed to make the legal or evidentiary case to disqualify DA Fani Willis. A decision is expected on disqualification shortly. The steep legal hurdle to prove disqualification has not been met and time to move past this distraction now, to a swift trial before a jury. The DA had requested an August start date and if the federal election overthrow case is not moving there’s no reason not to grant that request.

Perhaps the most dubious prognosis is in the Mar-a-Lago case— but even there a trial is possible. After prior indications of favoritism toward Trump by Judge Aileen Cannon, who Trump appointed, and numerous delays invited by the judge, she is considering putting the case before a jury this summer. The prosecution is asking for a July 8 trial and Trump has counter-offered the option of August 12, although he would strongly prefer kicking the can to 2025. And no wonder: If that happens and he is elected, he will likely try to dismiss the case, pardon himself or both. Despite Cannon’s partiality so far, we should not write off this prospect until we see what happens.

The chances of holding former President Trump accountable in the 2016 campaign corruption and cover up case election case plus at least one of these three possible prosecutions still look good. Polling indicates that Americans would take the conviction and sentencing of Trump seriously. The American people want answers from a jury of Trump’s peers — from their own fellow Americans. I believe they can still get those answers this year – before it is too late. If they do, then the state of accountability in our nation will, like the rest of our union, be strong indeed.