Bellingham tops CIES transfer value list as Real Madrid dominate

With 2024 now here, the CIES Football Observatory in Switzerland has published its annual list of the top 100 male players in world football with the highest estimated transfer value.

Having scoured the top 100 — the values for whom are based on a statistical algorithm created by examining over 6,000 transfers worldwide — here are our main takeaways, with the yearly reminder that the world record for a transfer in the men’s game stands at €222 million (Neymar, Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain, 2017.)

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Bellingham would be the most valuable transfer

Given his sublime form since joining Real Madrid from Borussia Dortmund for an initial €103m in the summer, it’s no surprise that midfielder Bellingham is top of the list having seen his estimated transfer value soar to €267.5m.

The 20-year-old has been an instant success with a remarkable 17 goals in 22 games across all competitions, while he is also the top goal scorer in LaLiga with 13 so far.

Madrid are unlikely to part with their star man at any point in the foreseeable future, but it’s worth noting that Bellingham’s transfer valuation is almost €15m higher than the second-placed player in the top 100 (Manchester City striker Erling Haaland, €251.2m.)

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— CIES Football Obs (@CIES_Football) January 4, 2024

Real Madrid have a stockpile of young talent

Three of the top four players on CIES’ list are Real Madrid starlets, with Bellingham joined at the summit by teammates Vinícius Júnior. (€250.3m) and Rodrygo (€247.9m), who are third and fourth respectively.

The oldest of the trio is Vinícius who clocks in at 23 years old, proving that the Madrid front line will be in safe hands for some time.

Nine of the top 10 hail from either the England‘s Premier League or Spain‘s LaLiga, and represent a total of four clubs: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester City and Arsenal.

After Madrid trio, Barcelona have one entrant in Gavi (7th). As for the Premier League contingent, Man City can boast Haaland (2nd), Phil Foden (6th) and Julián Álvarez (8th), while Arsenal have Bukayo Saka (5th) and Martin Ødegaard (10th).

Bayern Munich‘s Jamal Musiala (9th) is the only player from outside the English and Spanish top flights to crack the upper echelons of the CIES ranking. Indeed, the trend continues throughout the top 20, with Florian Wirtz (20th) of Bayer Leverkusen the only player included who plies his trade outside the Premier League or LaLiga.

Rest of Europe’s top leagues keep in touch

While they barely trouble the top 20, the rest of European football’s big five leagues aren’t too far off the pace.

As already noted, Bayern’s Musiala (€152.4m) tops out for the German Bundesliga as he is just inside the top 10, while Italian Serie A representative comes in the form of Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (€115.3m), who is 21st.

Elsewhere, unsurprisingly the French Ligue 1 counts PSG forward Kylian Mbappé as its No. 1, but the 24-year-old’s relatively low transfer valuation of €106.2m (largely due to his contract expiring this summer) places him way down in 27th, below the likes of Arsenal’s Kai Havertz (€106.8m) and Newcastle’s Bruno Guimarães (€109.7m.)

Gems to be found beyond the Big Five

While Europe’s Big Five leagues dominate the top 100, it should be noted that there are some top youngsters to be found beyond those confines.

According to CIES, Benfica defender António Silva has the highest estimated transfer value in the world (€114.1m) from outside those leagues. The 20-year-old centre-back is also the most highly valued defender on the list and places 23rd, with Arsenal’s William Saliba (€104.3m) his closest competition.

Outside Europe, the top prospect is 17-year-old Palmeiras starlet Endrick (€82.7m). Given Real Madrid’s exemplary track record when it comes to scouting the stars of tomorrow, it’s shouldn’t come as much of a shock to learn that the Brazil striker has already agreed to sign for Los Blancos for €72m when he turns 18 in the summer.

Arsenal’s reserve goalkeeper has value

They may have three outfield players in the top 11 (Saka, Ødegaard and Gabriel Martinelli) but Arsenal can also proudly boast the most valuable goalkeeper in the world amid their number — and he’s not even the Gunners’ current No. 1!

As odd as it may seem, CIES have rated Aaron Ramsdale (€79.6m) at the top of the tree, despite him playing just five times in the league this season having lost his place to David Raya. What’s more, the England international is one of only two goalkeepers in the top 100: the other being Borussia Dortmund’s Gregor Kobel (€77.2m.)

Transfer valuations are skyrocketing

It’s no secret that transfer valuations at the elite level of football are increasing each year, with transfer records seemingly broken every window, but the CIES list does cement the fact that player valuations have absolutely rocketed in the space of 12 months.

Indeed, compared with the corresponding list compiled by CIES in early 2023, the number of players with a prospective value in excess of €100m has nearly doubled from 20 to 39 — a clear reflection of the vast inflation that has occurred during a calendar year that has seen Enzo Fernández, Declan Rice, Moisés Caicedo, Bellingham and Harry Kane all move for fees in excess of €100m.

Furthermore, the value of the 100th player in the Top 100 is €71.3m (Anthony Gordon, Newcastle), compared with €53.4m in June 2023. And when CIES produced the same list in January 2021, Manchester United forward Marcus Rashford was top with a value of €165m that would place him eighth in the 2024 list.