Monkeypox didn’t become a pandemic. Are we celebrating too soon?

The summer of 2022 might be remembered as a moment when the proverbial canary in the coal mine sang a few false notes. In July the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency after more than 16,000 monkeypox infections were confirmed in 75 countries all over the globe. By early the following month, California, Illinois and New York had also declared public health emergencies, and some experts believed a new pandemic had already begun in the United States. On Aug. 4th American officials declared a national public health emergency, prompting millions to fear that they would catch a disease that was notorious for causing pustules to emerge all over your body.

That was only two months ago. As of today, the seven-day average for new monkeypox infections is one-seventh of what it was at its early August peak. Why?

There is not a singular reason for monkeypox’s decline, though the vaccines that exist played a starring role. Indeed, the two vaccines that already existed for the virus proved to be effective. Moreover, the virus primarily spreads through close contact, meaning it did not have the easy transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (which causes COVID-19).

n addition, because the virus primarily impacted gay and bisexual men with multiple partners, its spread was reduced when individuals in those communities began to take more safety precautions — and a vaccination drive played a huge role. Similarly, as Pride Month celebrations subsided, there were fewer instances of casual sex to facilitate spread of the disease.

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Not all experts agree with the rosier assessments about monkeypox’s future. Indeed, some experts are warning that celebrations of a non-pandemic may be premature.

Speaking at a press conference in Geneva on Wednesday, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus noted that their organization has recorded more than 70,000 monkeypox cases and 26 deaths. Although cases are declining globally, 21 countries saw an increase the previous week — and 90% of those countries were in North or South America.

“Once again, we caution that a declining outbreak can be the most dangerous outbreak, because it can tempt us to think that the crisis is over and to let down our guard,” Ghebreyesus explained. “That’s not what WHO is doing. We are continuing to work with countries around the world to increase their testing capacity, and to monitor trends in the outbreak.”

American policymakers are equally cautious about premature declarations of triumph. Demetre Daskalakis, the White House’s national monkeypox response deputy coordinator, told reporters in September that this is a “long game” situation.

“This isn’t something that we’re going to see go away in a matter of weeks or months, but it’s something that if we keep the pedal to the metal, as it were, we should be able to get to a point where we have really potentially good outbreak control and the ultimate goal being that we do not have endemicity in the U.S. But that means investing,” Daskalakis explained.

To protect yourself from monkeypox, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urges people to thoroughly clean their homes, avoid allowing their pets to be in close contact with people who have monkeypox, and only engaging in safe sex. The CDC also urged people to obtain monkeypox vaccinations if they have not already done so. The monkeypox vaccine is also effective in fighting smallpox, which is a similar disease.