Trump is still ranting about 2020 — but it’s really about 2026

President Donald Trump has a lot on his plate these days. There’s his military actions in Latin America, which have left at least 43 dead, and the government shutdown, now in its 28th day. There’s his demolition of the East Wing of the White House, the militarization of Democratic-led cities and tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Those are just a few of the highlights. Somehow, though, he has still managed to ensure that the Department of Justice isn’t leaving any stone unturned in its pursuit of his perceived political enemies. 

Even as he traveled to Asia over the weekend, Trump found time to post that former FBI Director Christopher Wray, Special Prosecutor Jack Smith, Attorney General Merrick Garland and Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco “cheated and rigged the 2020 election.” That’s odd, you’re likely thinking; Trump was the president in 2020, and with the exception of Wray — whom he handpicked to lead the FBI in 2017 after Director James Comey’s firing — all of them were appointed after he left office. But that would be missing the point. 

Trump is determined to see that the 2020 election remains at the top of voters’ minds, despite the fact that he won in 2024 and Democrats accepted the results without any question. 

To my mind, the president’s continuing obsession with 2020 is mostly because he will never be able to accept that he lost — and he certainly cannot accept that he made an utter fool of himself with what transpired on Jan. 6. In fact, the lengths to which he went in contesting the election are even more deeply humiliating than the Big Lie itself. On some level Trump knows this, and he can only soothe what churns inside him by doubling down on all of it, even if it means claiming that people who weren’t even in office were responsible. 

But there’s yet another reason for his compulsive dredging up of 2020, and it has everything to do with the future, not the past. With the 2026 midterms looming, Trump knows he can’t lose either chamber of Congress. Once that happens, his reign as the unfettered master of all he surveys will be over. A Democratic majority may not be able to stop his executive actions, especially as the Supreme Court seems to be intent upon handing him more and more power. But they would not lack means to claw back some authority of their own and at least slow him down.

Trump also knows that if the Republicans lose, his status as a lame duck is suddenly very real. No longer will he be the king, much less the kingmaker — and he cannot stand the idea of being irrelevant. (And no, despite the recent Steve Bannon blather about a secret plan to allow Trump a third term, it’s very unlikely. He will be 82 on Election Day in 2028, and he’s already slipping very badly.) Instead, the president wants to leave office as the undisputed Greatest Leader the World Has Ever Known, and losing the midterms as he did in 2018 just won’t do. 

The plans for how to make sure his supremacy is maintained are not a secret. The first step is to ensure there is enough suspicion around election systems that the results are inherently suspect — unless the Republicans win. You would think that GOP voters would wonder why, if the Democrats are so adept at stealing elections, that they stole the one in 2020 but forgot to do the same in 2024. Instead, they take the president’s claims at face value — that he actually won a huge landslide last year that was just too big for Democrats to poach. In fact, Trump’s win over Vice President Kamala Harris was one of the narrowest victories in history. But to MAGA supporters, that just proves Democrats would have succeeded with their nefarious plans if Trump hadn’t won so “bigly.”

Even though he was on a trip to Asia to meet with important leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump felt the need to post on social media that the 2020 election is a bigger scandal than the NBA gambling probe. He expressed hopes that “the DOJ pursues this with as much ‘gusto’ as befitting the biggest SCANDAL in American history!” Then he issued a telling warning: “If not, it will happen again, including the upcoming Midterms.” 

Trump went on to demand that mail-in and early voting be banned, and he claimed that California’s redistricting is “totally dishonest” because ballots are being “shipped.” 

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Already, there are more concrete plans on the horizon. Mother Jones’ election expert Ari Berman laid out steps for what he dubbed “Project 2026” — the GOP’s plan to ensure they do not lose the midterms. 

---

Want more sharp takes on politics? Sign up for our free newsletter, Standing Room Only, written by Amanda Marcotte, now also a weekly show on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

---

One important step happened in March, when Trump signed an executive order that contained a laundry list of voter suppression policies, including requiring proof of citizenship to vote and mail-in ballots to be received by election day. The order has been blocked in the courts, but Berman speculates that it is really designed as a means to contest the outcome if Republicans don’t win. Quite a few states have adopted these new requirements already. The order also has a cute catch-22 built in by requiring only certain voting machines and new standards be used — except they aren’t available, which automatically opens the door to challenges on the basis of compromised machines.

By now, everyone knows about the GOP’s redistricting and gerrymandering efforts. Trump and party officials are openly demanding that GOP-led states redistrict to give the party more seats in the House. Meanwhile, on Oct. 15 the Supreme Court heard Louisiana v. Callais, which could weaken or kill the Voting Rights Act, eliminate most of the Black Democratic held seats in the South and possibly ensure a Republican majority in the House of Representatives for the foreseeable future. 

Election deniers have also secured key government appointments, allowing them to work from within. This includes Heather Honey, who was named deputy assistant secretary for election integrity at the Department of Homeland Security in August, and Harmeet Dhillon, who was appointed to head the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division. Dhillon is now focused on Black and Brown districts she claims are “unconstitutional racial gerrymanders.” 

Following the lead of a candidate for the North Carolina Supreme Court who challenged the election results and nearly succeeded in having tens of thousands of votes thrown out, GOP officials throughout the country are preparing for similar challenges which may very well succeed if they can locate the right judge. 

Berman notes there are concerns about Trump finding a reason to declare yet another national emergency, which would allow him to deploy the National Guard or send in Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to intimidate people at the polls. That’s certainly a possibility. And there’s an excellent chance that if a Democratic House majority depends upon seating the winners of some close races, key GOP election officials could simply refuse to certify them and Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., could then refuse to swear them in. (He’s already doing just that with Democratic Rep.-Elect Adelita Grijalva of Arizona.) 

There was a time when I would have thought that such talk was paranoia, that Trump was just blowing smoke as a sort of prophylaxis against a possible loss. But the GOP has fully bought into the idea that they have a right to win by any means necessary, and that a Democratic victory is inherently illegitimate — regardless of the voters’ intentions. Unfortunately the 2026 midterms will not be the last election held under the shadow of election denialism. It is now an organizing principle of the Republican Party.