The unraveling of Barcelona has been weeks in the making

If, during the international break, you happen to be sharing a drink with a Barcelona fan who tries to tell you that their 4-1 mauling at Sevilla would have been different if Robert Lewandowski hadn’t fluffed a penalty and Roony Bardghji hadn’t missed a sitter at 2-1, then smile benignly at them, pay for their beverage and make sure they get home safely.

They are in denial. Big time. Fear is gnawing at their footballing soul like a rat at the wood of a kitchen cupboard.

Yes, the big, lumbering “last embers of a once-great Polish striker” could have made it 2-2 if he’d converted from 12 yards. And yes, in that hypothetical scenario, the darting young Swede could then have made it 2-3 to the defending LaLiga champions meaning that, just like those who go fishing, we are all entitled to “the one that got away” tall tales that make great telling.

But Hansi Flick’s side not only deserved their mauling, which could have seen them 5-1 down by halftime: this defeat, and its emphatic nature, has been on the cards for weeks.

Barça have played almost exactly 1,000 competitive minutes this season, across eight games domestically and two in Europe. Speaking generously, Barcelona have played at a good level for about 480 minutes of that — 48%. That’s a failing rate, and no kind of acceptable performance level if a club wants not only to retain its three-trophy status but, via the UEFA Champions League, improve it.

Don’t take my word for it, even though I’m bang-on accurate — go back and listen to Flick’s post-match news conferences and read the players’ words.

The first signal that they weren’t waving, but drowning, came on Matchday 1. Leading at nine-man Mallorca, including a 2-0 goal that the refereeing committee subsequently admitted should not have been allowed to stand, not only were Barcelona lazy, sluggish and complacent, but they were given a rocket, post-match, by their deeply unhappy German coach. “I didn’t like our performance — we played at about 50% focus,” he said. “We need to manage games better and be intense … even when it appears easy to beat nine men.”

They were given the absolute runaround at newly promoted Levante, trailing 2-0 at the break even though it could easily have been four or five, but Joan García saved their skins. Away to Rayo Vallecano, again, they were out-worked, hustled out of their comfort zone, significantly out-gunned on xG and, eventually, very fortunate to escape with a draw instead of a defeat.

“We committed too many errors, we didn’t control the game via the ball,” Flick said after that match. That he added that infamous phrase, “last year we were a proper team, but ego kills success,” was devastating, especially when left out there hanging — without the player(s) — or directors — in question being identified. The next day, influential Catalan paper, Diario Sport warned in their editorial: “Flick better watch out … at this rate he might not make it to the end of the season.” Astonishing.

Newly promoted and under-resourced Real Oviedo punched holes in Barcelona’s press and defending, though the eventual 3-1 Blaugrana win at the Estadio Carlos Tartiere is one of four Liga matches in which they’ve conceded first and had to mount a remontada. Exciting viewing for neutrals, but not the stamp of champions.

Skip forward to Sunday and Sevilla’s Argentinian coach, Matías Almeyda, gathered up all the Blaugrana weaknesses he’d witnessed, promised his players that Barça were suffering from a glass jaw, rasping lungs and legs of lead.

The war cry worked.

Sevilla trampled all over the Catalans. If they’d converted all their glaring goal chances and added to the four they scored, they’d have smashed their nearly 80-year-old record home score against Barça (4-0 in 1947).

Just a little titbit. I was watching the game alongside Sevilla legend Diego Capel. You remember the bustling, cheeky, fast left winger, who played alongside footballers like Freddie Kanouté and who scored in Sevilla’s 2010 Copa del Rey final win over Atlético Madrid? (He scored at Camp Nou twice in that Copa run: once to eliminate Pep Guardiola’s team, and once in that final victory.)

Capel still lives in the Europe’s hottest city, the Frying Pan, still loves the club he’s supported since he was a boy, and he turns green if you mention Real Betis playing well. But like much of Spain, he’s been conditioned to the idea that if your team is dominating Barcelona (or Real Madrid) and then concedes, as Sevilla did just before halftime to Marcus Rashford‘s thunderous volley, then that’s it: the big boys are going to win. The Blaugrana and Los Blancos do it over and over again — metronomically if you happen to be a fan of either of them, monotonously if you aren’t.

Poor old Capel went through torment when Barcelona scored that glorious goal with a gold-plated Pedri assist. Equally so when Adnan Januzaj conceded that infamous missed penalty and, five minutes later, when Roony had a stone-cold chance but hit Sevilla’s Greek keeper, Odisseas Vlachodimos.

Side note, reader: I told Capel that he was overly pessimistic and that Barcelona, chances aside, were playing very badly again. So, lo and behold, when the two of us met after work, he admitted: “You were right, you told me so.”

On which point it’s probably appropriate to be a bit self examinatory here.

In my first ESPN column of the new season, exactly eight weeks ago, I wrote: “Are Barcelona the only club in the world where you could explain to a neutral observer the level of chaotic, acrimonious threat from which they suffer and still predict that they’re favorites to win two or three domestic trophies this season?”

Well, now: “favorites” looks a pretty punchy prediction at the moment! It’s time to admit that. However, it is too soon to abandon the prediction altogether, and neither Madrid nor Atléti look anything like banker bets to strip away Barcelona’s title.

If Barcelona fans want to present a case that some of their problems are externally inspired then, fine. From one week to the next, the squad doesn’t know where they’ll be playing their home matches: Johan Cruyff Stadium? Montjuïc Olympic Stadium? Camp Nou, as their president keeps promising?

They’re badly missing Lamine Yamal and Raphinha when they’re injured, and badly missing Iñigo Martínez, who was allowed to walk away on a free transfer as a friendly gesture to the defensive leader upon whom Flick was counting.

Finally: the relationship between board and coach and squad has been corroded by the treatment of Marc-André ter Stegen (Flick: “Has everything related to communication always been handled in the best possible way? I think there’s a lot of room for improvement, even on my part.”) and by sporting director Deco constantly poking and prodding to see who is wiling to leave in an effort to correct Barça’s Financial Fair Play deficit.

Very unsettling. All of it.

But what about the team’s fitness? Its stamina? Barça have looked jaded all season, except against Valencia (who were atrocious) and in their best performance, at Newcastle United. When they are energy-poor or attitude-deficient, the press suffers, opponents have time to think and pass accurately and, like night follows day, Barcelona’s defending suffers.

Pedri, after the Sevilla defeat, said: “Horrendous performance. We didn’t seem to know what to do with the ball. We lacked intensity and quality.”

If Flick’s side don’t resume their level of pressing, then either they’ll need to change how they defend or they can kiss goodbye hopes of winning any trophy this season.

LaLiga’s own Performance Football Intelligence stats show, incredibly, that one of last season’s most thrilling press-and-intercept sides, anywhere in Europe, now recovers the ball from rivals via tackles or interceptions at a rate that is lower than the LaLiga average. A devastating dropoff.

Flick said on Sunday: “After the internationals, we’ll be back, fighting to win every competition.”

His talk show-like “We’ll be right back after the break!” promise might have been the correct tone, generically, but unless his team conducts a massive reset, dusts off its old warrior attitude, keeps key players fit and, arguably, begins to value success over ego again, then much more trouble lies ahead.