CNN data guru: Trump is in a “historically strong position” as new poll shows him tied with Biden
A New York Times/Siena poll of registered voters published on Tuesday found that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied at 43% each, despite Trump’s spate of legal issues and Democrats’ favorable performance in the midterm elections last year. Both candidates have faced several blows to public image, with only 41% of voters indicating that they have a favorable opinion of Trump and Biden “unable to capitalize on his opponent’s profound vulnerability,” with a lagging 39% approval rate.
The Times reported that the survey’s findings suggest “that the electorate remains deeply divided along the demographic fault lines of the 2020 presidential election, with Mr. Trump commanding a wide lead among white voters without a college degree, while Mr. Biden counters with an advantage among nonwhite voters and white college graduates.” Additionally, the survey indicates that a closer race in 2024 might be the result of “Trump gains among Black, Hispanic, male and low-income voters,” groups the former president has previously succeeded in winning over.
In an electoral analysis published over the weekend, CNN data analyst Harry Enten examined the numbers influencing the Republican presidential primary and explained why he feels Trump remains a formidable opponent for Biden. “Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle,” Enten said. “No one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent. He’s pulling in more than 50% of support in the national primary polls, i.e., more than all his competitors combined,” he added.
