EIU predicts victory for NDC in 2024

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted victory for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the 2024 presidential elections.

“The next parliamentary and presidential elections are due in 2024. Under the constitutionally mandated term limits, Mr Akufo-Addo cannot run for a third term. Mr Mahama is reportedly considering whether to run again, but we expect the NDC to seek to revitalise its prospects with a fresh candidate. After two terms of NPP government, we expect the NDC to win the 2024 presidential election and to gain a small majority in parliament,” the EIU said in a recent report.

This prediction comes weeks after the court dismissed an election petition filed by former President John Dramani Mahama, following his loss in the general election.

Three months after intense trial, the Supreme Court on Thursday, March 4, 2021, ruled that the 2020 Election petition filed by John Dramani Mahama was unmeritorious.

The Justices of the Court explained that the petition was incompetent, lacked merit, and raised no reasonable cause of action because the petitioner failed to prove his case via his petition or through his witnesses.

John Mahama who represented the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the polls went to court insisting that none of the nine presidential candidates obtained the mandatory 50%+1 vote constitutional threshold to be declared the winner of the polls.

The EIU further stated that the Akufo-Addo administration, with a current razor-thin majority in Parliament, will require all of its MPs to vote, in the House, in order to push through government’s policies.

“In the 2020 parliamentary election, the NPP and the NDC each won 137 seats, but in January the one independent member of parliament (MP) announced that he would co-operate with the NPP, giving it the 138 seats needed for an effective majority. With a razor-thin majority, the Akufo-Addo administration will require all of its MPs to vote with the party in order to push through signature policies, which is likely to necessitate deal-making to persuade MPs, which stands to obstruct immediate policy priorities, such as reducing a large fiscal overhang through expenditure cuts and tax rises.”

“Holding a majority in parliament gives the NPP an advantage in pursuing its legislative agenda. The difficulty of achieving party unity has already been demonstrated, as the opposition NDC was able to elect its choice for speaker of parliament, with 138 votes, against 136 votes for the NPP’s candidate. The breakdown of votes is kept secret, but at least one NPP politician did not vote

for the party’s nomination. With the speaker role secured, the NDC could block ministerial appointments and potentially withhold parliamentary assent for major policies, leading Mr Afuko-Addo’s administration into concessions and compromises with the NDC.”

On Ghana’s debt stock, the EIU noted that “the country is currently estimated to be in default, following a rise in principal arrears owed to external official creditors in 2018.”

“The current-account deficit, which is estimated to have averaged 2.8% of GDP over the past 48 months, is a drag on the score. Arrears will remain substantial, raising the perceived risk of a prolonged default among investors. Regarding the structure of the national accounts, the services sector is the largest sector of the economy, accounting for about 45% of GDP,” it added.

—citinewsroom

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